The numbers are out and we can go back to focusing on weather, trade deals and monetary policy. The USDA figures; Corn production at 14.778 billion bushels surprisingly down from the September estimate and carryover projection increased by lowering exports………………….Bean production was decreased by 3 million bushels from the September figure to 4.690 billion bushels and carryover increased …
Pre-USDA, Buy Bearish Report?, LC FC OLS, KWZ SU, OJ
Good morning Strategic view CORN- Let’s see what the $3.60 bears can do. I like standing at my long term macro levels to buy. I made long term bottom call in corn on an org 3.43 support, and tiny OLB2 under 3.48ish. This was confirmed with a reversal down bar my sequence right into olive buy extreme. 5c sloppy. Buy …
Livestock Report – Feeder Cattle
Feeder cattle broke down to the lower part of its 159.90 – 155.525 trading on Wednesday October 10, 2018. It made its low at 155.725 and settled at 156.175. The aggressive purchasing of feeder cattle seems to have come to a halt. Muddy conditions in feedlots plus calf weaning and colder weather lead to illness risk creating a cautious buyer …
Grain Spreads: Points on the Map
I have been reading and watching over the last 36 hours many pre-report USDA guesses and subsequent game plans regarding the grain trade for the next 30 to 60 days. Eerily they are all the same. Buy any spike dips in corn and beans as the anticipation is that funds will buy the next dip in both on a report …
AG TIME – Report Thursday
The USDA report tomorrow could be important. The markets are easing a bit into Thursday. I have covered the fundamentals as I see it over the last week. The numbers are off the charts huge. That most likely won’t change. The probabilities are a .5-1 bu to the acre increase. This coupled with the declining exports will equate to a …
Feeding a Bull Market
Bull markets need to be fed every day! The cupboards appear to be bare, today!!! The USDA may change that tomorrow at 11:00 with its release of the October 1 Production estimates and Supply/Demand projections. Analysts and traders have been suggesting that we might see a small increase in corn and bean yields, domestic …
AG TIME – The Calendar is Key
The soy was under pressure with the thoughts switching to the USDA report Thursday. The crop progress today should show the pace about normal. The weather forecast is drying out in many key areas and will allow the harvest to progress nicely. There will, of course, remain spots that are problematic. That is normal for any year. There is plenty …
Hurricanes,Ethanol, and Reports
Hurricanes and Crop Reports are on the menu this week and both are equally easy to predict……………………Not! …………………Go into Thursday’s report understanding that the USDA has given us bearish surprises on the last three major reports and it is a coin flip once again…………………Do not believe that there is a pattern! Anything can happen! The average trade guesses are for …
Livestock Report – Cattle
Cattle markets continue to trade in a range. Feeder Cattle is trading between 159.90 and 155.525. Live Cattle is trading between 119.75 and 116.625. The cash market on a live basis between 110.00 and 112.00 and dressed between 173.00 and 175.00. Boxed beef between 203.00 and 206.00. Supply and demand in a balanced (ho hum) state. What can alter the …
Grain Spreads: The State of Grain
Impressive bounce in beans and a modest pop for corn followed by recent rallies in wheat being sold into has been the theme for grains to start October and the 4th quarter. Trade agreements like NAFTA being reworked with the recent impasse with Canada now behind us has given thoughts to deals being reworked and resolved with the EU and …