Hurricanes and Crop Reports are on the menu this week and both are equally easy to predict……………………Not! …………………Go into Thursday’s report understanding that the USDA has given us bearish surprises on the last three major reports and it is a coin flip once again…………………Do not believe that there is a pattern! Anything can happen! The average trade guesses are for a small increases in domestic production and carryover for corn, wheat and beans as well as minor increases in world ending stocks……………………….Traders are talking about the Crop Progress showing 33% complete with corn and bean harvest and winter wheat seeding nearing 60% in tonight’s holiday delayed reports.
E-15 all year round might mean another 200 to 250 million bushels of corn demand if the proposal clears all the hurdles……………………………….The announcement could be supportive yet, it has been anticipated for a few weeks……………………………….Harvest activity is expected to increase as the National Weather Service is forecasting drier weather in the western half of the corn belt for the next two weeks………………………Storage concerns are still an issue and we anticipate weakness in the basis and spreads as harvest activity accelerates…………………………………..Winter wheat seeding is approaching its point of diminishing returns date in the Midwest……………………………..I still anticipate that the trade is trying to add acres and approach the level we attained in the 2016/2017 marketing year…………………………….We won’t get an official estimate until January 2109 which leaves us with three months of flying blind and relying on field and seed sale reports…………………………………..
Outside market influences such as monetary policy and trade pacts remain at the forefront in the grain trade…………………………………..As of this writing, in my opinion, the market anticipates no new news before Thursdays 11:00 Chicago time USDA Reports……………………………………………….This might means a very dull day price fluctuation-wise tomorrow!…………………………………………….
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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