The numbers are out and we can go back to focusing on weather, trade deals and monetary policy.
The USDA figures; Corn production at 14.778 billion bushels surprisingly down from the September estimate and carryover projection increased by lowering exports………………….Bean production was decreased by 3 million bushels from the September figure to 4.690 billion bushels and carryover increased to 885 million bushels……………………………….Wheat carryover jumped to 956 million bushels from 935 in September……………………..The World figures; Corn ending stocks jumped from 157.03 to 159.35 million metric tonnes………., Bean ending stocks popped from 108.26 to 110.04 mmt……………and Wheat ending stocks slipped to 260.18 from 261.29 mmt……………………….This was a friendly surprise………………….another instant where respecting the USDA and approaching reports with caution bears witness!
Now it’s back to weather and getting the crops in the bin and the 6 to 10 day forecasts as well as the 8 to 14 day forecasts suggest that Mother Nature is cooperating with slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions prevailing………….And the trade will see how creative we can get with storage as existing structures are projected to be full and the spillover, projected to be the final 10%, will have to find a creative way to stay the Winter. Some may take a chance and leave corn standing for the Winter but, most will lessen the chance of field loss and harvest and hope for a hole to squirrel it away…….. …………………
Historically, the USDA averages increase its production figure on a percentage basis of 50/50 in corn and bean production from the October estimates to the Final Figure released in January according to the reliability figures issued with today’s reports………………………………
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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