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Commentary
December Chicago wheat is below all 3 of the major moving averages and although stochastics has turned higher this week from deep in oversold territory, there has been no upside momentum so far. Winter wheat planting is in the final stages and US export prices are competitive for SRW, but that has not been enough to offset technical weakness lately. The big news overnight is that Russian officials have confirmed that they will participate in the three way peace talks with the Ukraine and US in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, this brought selling not only in wheat but in corn also, while its unlikely that anything will come out of the meeting’s the market risk is that exports out of the Black Sea could resume and this saw new fund selling but also consumer side of the market will step away and let the price action unfold to see if prices will continue to work lower, which has been the recent trend. The scheduled meeting in ABU Dhabi coincides with the WASDE release on November 10th. The meeting and report release has all the predicates of a sell the rumor and buy the fact event in my opinion as whatever progress comes of the talks will likely be short -lived or plain nonsense.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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