Walsh Daily Bullet Points 9/30

GRAINS

18% of U.S. corn harvested- matches the 5-year average but at the lower end of expectations
Corn crop rating steady at 57% good/excellent
Rain slowed harvest in key areas over the past week
USDA is warning of moisture from Hurricane Polo and is expecting to collide with cold fronts— 2-6 inches of rain across the central/southern Plains, western Corn Belt and mid-South— could complicate winter wheat planning+harvest
Western Corn Belt fields are very wet- hard to run machinery
Corn (Dec): up 3¢, open interest down 8,951 contracts
Chicago wheat (Dec): up 5½¢
Wheat open interest: Chicago up 181
Harvest conditions expected to improve next week

17% of soybeans harvested, also at the low end of expectations
Soybean crop rating steady at 58% good/excellent
Beans have been swinging on China headlines since the Trump-Xi meeting
China signaled it could lower tariffs on some U.S. ag goods- soybeans weren’t on the list- market read that as a letdown Monday, then bounced back Tuesday
Soybeans (Nov): up 3¼¢, open interest down 2,845 contracts
Rumors of Chinese demand are supporting beans- Chinese Dalian soybeans jumped 2.07% overnight
Soybean meal (Dec): up $1.10, open interest down 3,029
Soybean oil (Dec): up 5 points, open interest down 9,398, a big drop- lots of contracts leaving the market
Dalian soymeal up 0.66%, Dalian soyoil up 0.89%, palm oil up 0.23%; Malaysian palm down 0.26%
Canola still soft, tracking soyoil and European rapeseed, with the strong dollar working against it
Watch for China tariff relations- for canola since China is Canada’s biggest buyer

Live cattle up 45-50 cents
Light cash trade at $350 in the North
Feeder cattle up 87 cents to $1.65; CME Feeder Cattle Index at $338.79
Pasture ratings improved to 19% good/excellent, up 2 points in the week
Lean hogs up 80 cents to $1.10– Oct at $79.05, Dec at $69.50, Feb at $70.30
National base hog price $78.01; CME Lean Hog Index down another 55 cents to $81.21
Pork cutout up $2.79 to $90.59, hog slaughter 491,000 head– above last Monday

Cocoa dropped heavily– NY December down 3.24%
Occured because of stronger dollar– more selling and Ivory Coast suppy looks good- shipments up 19.8% from last year+ ICE cocoa inventories hit a 2.25-year high
Looking forward to next year- early surveys put the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop at 1.8 million tonnes, down 18%, and Ghana’s crop is forecast down 13%
For sugar: Brazilian mills are expected to keep sending cane to ethanol instead of sugar, even after raw sugar jumped 21% last month
Wet El Niño means the cane has too much moisture for good sugar but is enough for ethanol

Dow down 0.2%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq slightly lower
30-year Treasury yield hit 5.6%, its highest since June 2002, settled around 5.585%
10-year at 5.253%, 2-year fell to 4.891%
Driving this is inflation worries US deficits, and low Treasury debt being issued
The Fed saying more rate hike are needed to keep inflation down
PCE data signals that inflaion is not cooling yet-
Oil pulled back-WTI down toward $90, Brent near $103, because more crude may be getting through the Strait of Hormuz
Gold around $4,150-4,180 on dip buying, silver stuck near $61, platinum hit new lows