Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/3

GRAINS

Corn down 1½ overnight after closing up a half cent Monday, it traded to a new four-month low early and recovered
Harvest is 74% complete and heading into the final quarter, which usually brings one more round of hedge selling
A large sale to Mexico failed to lift the market
Open interest fell 4,756 Monday, funds have cut their net long to 88,693 contracts from 179,574 two weeks ago
Wheat down ¼ in Chicago
The Black Sea reopening is still the pressure, Russia restarted Sea of Azov shipments and is working on the Kerch Strait
Argentina is reporting Fusarium fungus in its wheat crop
US winter wheat planting is on the average pace
Managed money is net short 62,637 contracts in Chicago wheat, up from 46,459 the week before

Beans broke hard Monday, down 18¼ to 12.16, a new low, up 2½ overnight
Meal down 5.20 to 319.40, soyoil down 89 points to 65.01, both products fell more than beans did
Harvest is 88% complete
Crush printed 214¼, and oil is now the bigger half at 51.05% against meal’s 48.95%, that’s flipped from a week ago
The margin has lost about 30 cents in a week
ADM beat earnings estimates on strong processing margins, that’s the second big crusher after Bunge to report good margins while the board crush falls
Open interest Monday: beans +9,487, meal −6,719, soyoil +3,437.
Dalian all lower— beans −1.11%, meal −0.66%, soyoil −1.28%, palm −0.69%, Malaysian palm down 2.11%.
Canola settled 788.80, up 80 cents

Live cattle fell again, down 1.52 to 219.42, a fifth straight loss, Feeders bounced 83 cents to 332.60.
USDA confirmed H5N1 bird flu in an Indiana dairy herd
Weaner pig breakeven is $18.48, up 17 cents from last week
Hogs down another 50 cents to 58.38
Funds are net long 57,548 live cattle and net short 63,300 hogs

Sugar is the one with the most going on— March settled 19.00, down 36, and is trading 18.83 this morning, the lowest since early October
The reason it fell with crude is the ethanol switch, Brazilian mills choose each day whether to turn cane into sugar or ethanol
When oil crashes, ethanol stops paying, so more cane goes to sugar, more supply, lower price
That’s why an $8 drop in crude is a sugar story.
UNICA data show cane crushing up 1.8% year on year through August while sugar production fell 10.3%, because mills had been favoring ethanol, Cheap oil reverses that
India’s crop is expected smaller on a weak monsoon, and European planting is down
Cocoa settled 5,493, down 63, on ample supplies, ICE warehouse stocks reached 3,688,949 bags as of Oct. 29, a two-and-a-half-year high
Longer term it looks tighter— StoneX projects 2026/27 world output falling 9.6% to 4.74 million tonnes, which would turn this year’s surplus into a deficit
Coffee settled 292.10 in December, up 4.90, bouncing after falling to 283.50 last week, Brazilian shipments were running 43% ahead of last year through Oct. 22 per Cecafé
Cotton settled 77.58, down 25, after midday weakness, Still has the friendliest supply picture— world ending stocks at a 15-year low of 70.68 million bales and the final US crop rating at 33% good to excellent against a 40% average, India is expected to extend duty-free imports through December

Crude collapsed—WTI down $8.19 to $95.93, with Brent off 5%, on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy
That happened despite Goldman putting out a bullish forecast, and despite Ukraine hitting three Russian refineries since Friday
Netanyahu is still pushing for new strikes on Iran
Stocks split— Dow up 213.67 on cheaper oil, but S&P down 38.67 and Nasdaq 100 down 395.02 as the tech selloff continued
Gold and silver rebounded as oil fell
The Dallas Fed president is publicly making the case for rate hikes.
Midterms are today
Yields mixed as oil tumbled ahead of the midterms, futures mostly firmer across the curve

Dollar index 101.77, down again, falling with crude and yields ahead of the vote
Euro 1.1210, holding modest gains

Dec corn 4.47¾ (+½) · Dec Chicago wheat 6.06 (+2½)
Jan beans 12.16 (−18¼) · Dec meal 319.40 (−5.20) · Dec soyoil 65.01 (−0.89)
Dec live cattle 219.42 (−1.52) · Jan feeders 332.60 (+0.83) · Dec hogs 58.38 (−0.50)
Mar cocoa 5,493 (−63) · Mar sugar 19.00 (−0.36) · Dec cotton 77.58 (−0.25)
Crush (Dec): 214¼— oil 51.05%, meal 48.95%