Commentary
Nearby Corn futures posted a fourth consecutive lower weekly close and appear to have more near-term downside risk as prices threaten to fall through the bottom of the sideways range, we have witnessed for the last two months. Despite a slightly stronger demand outlook for corn in 2022- 23, USDA’s higher-than-expected production and yield figures add to other bearish headwinds, including sluggish exports and a strong South American outlook. However, there’s potential for short-term rallies, especially if the Ukraine export deal falls through as the country is a major corn exporter. U. N. negotiations with Russia began in Geneva today, with just over a week to keep the current deal for a Ukrainian export corridor alive as it is set to expire on 11/19. Russia has indicated its desire to quit the deal, after having backed out for four days in October before abruptly re-joining.
The weaker than expected CPI reading this week put pressure on the Dollar, yet Corn couldn’t stage a rally today even with beans and wheat with double digit gains. Support is as follows for December Corn into next week. First support is at 6.52. A close under and the market trades the fifty percent retracement level at 6.34. (7.06 October high-5.61 July low). A close under 6.34 and the next level support is a t 6.19. Resistance is up at 6.73 and 6.76. A close over and it is 6.79 (50MA). A close over these levels and its 6.93 and 6.96.
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