Commentary
January soybean futures saw heavy selling for the second straight session, falling 25 3/4 cents to $13.30 3/4. That loss marked a 9 1/2 cent loss on the week, despite a rally to $13.89 1/4 mid-week. Weaker volumes were seen in todays session with recent longs booking profits in beans and most meal contracts. December soybean meal futures showed relative strength, though fell 70 cents to $457.4, marking a $4.1 gain on the week. Funds were not impressed daily amid flash sale announcements of continued export demand, as USDA reported daily soybean sales of 129,000 MT to China and 323,400 MT to unknown destinations – all for 2023-24 delivery.
Scattered showers narrowed the areas of immediate crop stress in Brazil’s soybean belt to roughly 20% of its soybean belt, although that 20% includes some highly productive areas of Center-West Brazil. The next seven days see the chances for those showers dry up, allowing the areas under stress to expand to 40% once again, while southern production areas remain under a pattern of excessive rains. Chances for drought relief improve once again for Center-West Brazil for week #2, but confidence in forecasts that far out are lacking, because previous rains in the extended forecast have frequently failed to verify during the current growing season.
Technical levels for next week come in as follows for January Soybeans. Support has to hold at 1331 on consecutive closes in my opinion. We cant hold that level then its 12.95/12.96. Should that level not hold then the funds could target the Oct lows at 12.50. Resistance is at 13.45. A close over and its 13.65. A close over this level and I think the market trades over 14 to 14.03/09.
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