For the Final Friday US Grain Weather Report, CLICK HERE.
FRIDAY AM RADAR — FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Storms south central OK, eastern OK into far southwest MO… and a smaller cluster of storms over east central MO (in and around STL). Moderate showers over central ILL.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 10 AUGUST
Significant rains over the north TX Panhandle, all of western and central OK, southern half of KS into southeast COL… 60-70% coverage of 0.50-2.5″/ 12-60mm. Light rains 0.25-0.75″/ 6-20mm over rest of KS and southwest third of NEB… Light to moderate rains of 0.25-1.50″/6-38mm over south central MO… northeast NO into west central ILL, far southeast IA into far southeast WI with 40% coverage. Third area over 50% of LA, AL, MS into northwest GA and eastern TN… with amounts of .25 -2.5″/6-60mm.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
70s over eastern MT, WY, NEB, SD, ND, MN, IA … 80s over eastern COL, KS, southern IA, MO, ARK, ILL, IND, OH , NY, MS, AL, GA… 90s over OK and TX.
1-5 DAY = Remarkably there is not much to change in the forecast until day 5. Notice all three models show widespread significant rains over much of Oklahoma, Arkansas, perhaps Northern Texas with amounts between 3-9″/ 75-175mm depending on the model. Lesser but still significant rains fall over much of the Deep South and the Carolinas all the next 5 days. The central Plains however do see an increase in rain all in day 4-5 over central portions of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. These rains eventually will move into the WCB in the 6-10day. But until then, as wet as the Deep South is, the Midwest region remains just as dry.
6-10 DAY = The various operational or regular 6 to 10 day models here are somewhat mixed. The operational GFS model has significant rain and coverage over the WCB. Notice that the model has a bull’s eye of over 6″/ 1500mm rain in north central Iowa. However the operational European and Canadian models show most of Iowa missing out on the rain as does large portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Obviously these 2 solutions are mutually exclusive so the best thing to do is to look at the ensemble data and see what that is showing.
The 6 -10 Day model ensemble are dramatically wetter than any of the operational runs. The GFS ensemble being much wetter than the operational GFS … the European ensemble being much wetter than the operational European … and the Canadian ensemble being much wetter than the operational Canadian model. This strongly indicates that the operational models are simply under doing the rain next week for the WCB. That being said it should be pointed out that even if the ensemble models here are correct the rains coming in late next week over the WCB … those rains are not going to be major rain events. Ideally these rains will be substantially better than what that area has seen over the past few weeks but no where do we see an ideal textbook 2-4 inch rain with 75% coverage over the WCB.
11-15 DAY = The European Model has better rain over the WCB whereas the GFS model has more of its rains centered over the Deep South and the ECB region. Given the overall pattern it is likely to setup in the 11 to 15 day the idea of seeing somewhat heavier rains where more significant with better coverage over the WCB seems to be correct.
Looking at up WEEK 3 the CFS model shows temperatures generally below normal western Mississippi River throughout most of the Plains and south central Canada and near normal over the ECB. With respect to rainfall most the Midwest as well as the central Plains appear to be above normal rainfall.
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