It’s over!………………..At least we hope that we can close the book on the election of 2018 by tomorrow morning.
Now we can refocus on fundamentals and the USDA crop reports issued on Thursday and the potential for resolving trade pacts…………………………………Analysts and traders might be anticipating a reduction in production for corn and beans from the September and October numbers as well as World wheat production………………………………………………….The USDA surprised us in the last few reports and we always preach the Gospel of going into major reports as even and open minded as possible……………………………………………………..The USDA might tweak the ending stocks up a bit from the month ago figures as production declines might be tempered by demand reductions because of the slowdown of Chinese imports because of the time it is taking to resolve trade disputes……………………It’s just the opinion of the USDA and things change and we trade those changes every day!…………………………
We’ve another ten days to two weeks to replant/reseed some of the winter wheat acres which might have experienced water damage given the rains we’ve seen in the Plains the past month…………….Analysts and traders might still be concerned with the historic tightness in world stocks/use ratio and harvest in Argentina and Australia will increase in importance from both a quality and quantity stand point……………………………
Corn and bean stocks are still anticipated to comfortable with corn a little more friendly than beans……………………the last 20% of harvest may be a struggle and quality issues and field loss talk could increase starting next week if Mother Nature refuses to cooperate…………………..Spreads might remain on the defensive as poorer quality corn and beans tend to find the quickest way off the farm………………………………….
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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sbruce@walshtrading.com
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