The usda is out of the way. This report is important in my opinion and opens the door for hedging opportunities. The usda lowered the 18/19 domestic carry to 385. This may open the door for a bit of a bounce that in my opinion presents a hedging opportunity. The global numbers remain very large. In addition the Brazilian crop …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME structural changes
The beans and meal are under serious pressure. This creates structural damage to both charts. The pendulum is swinging in my opinion. The Chinese are selling beans from there reserves. The Brazilian has supplied almost all recent beans. The estimates for next years SA crops are on the rise due to the extreme currency differences between the US. It is …
AG TIME
The market was lackluster today. The nearby beans held the 9.97-10.00 level. This may prove important in the near term. The Chinese demand has been satisfied from Brazil recently. The next 2-3 months may see a pick up out of the US. Apparently, I say apparently, the China delegation has offered the US an additional 70 billion worth of new …
AG TIME
The weekend bore no fruit with the US and China. The beat goes on. It has been my belief that beans are overvalued. We now have moved back to $10.00 This has been a key level and may offer support given the early date on the calendar. The planting has been swift. The market will eye the acreage total at …
AG TIME – Fear and Reality
The soy traded both sides today. The oil share gained back a modest amount. There is much fear regarding all the trade tensions. It is my belief that ultimately that is noise. The reality of the market is that beans are off to a good start. It is probable that there could be an increase in acres. The Argentinian situation …
AG TIME summer markets starting
The summer markets are kicking off. Along with the time of year comes wild predictions of drought and famine. Well, drought anyway. This year will be no exception. They are already starting. I would like to say It is my belief we need to view rallies as opportunities. this may sound like a broken record. To have a drought crippling …
AG TIME – No fun for bulls or bears
The soy was all over the place today. Indecision, uncertainty, all create a difficult environment. The flow of continual information at times can be distracting. When I look at the charts, this has been very difficult, unless a short term view is used. Then it is still difficult. Enough of the complaints already. The market appears to be focused on …
AG TIME
There is much going on daily creating back and forth type trade. The soy broke off highs today because the Tariff concerns are still there. Talk of 25% being implemented IF the govt and china don’t work out their issues. There will be a point when the market needs to focus on the fundamentals. The medium term and long term …