The Soy was led yet again by beans and meal. The oil remains under pressure. The market is fighting the short term friendly aspect of the Argentinian smaller crop with the long term bearish fundamentals. The question is when will they collide. The demand for both US and Brazil will remain stout. This is keeping the funds under the market. …
AG TIME alot of theories
The soy traded both sides. There is so much talk, In my opinion guessing on what will transpire. Transpire in the talks with China, transpire with exports. The market on its own is well supplied. As I have said over and over the Chinese have net cancelled 1 mmt of beans in the last week. Their hog prices have plummeted. …
AG TIME SUPPOSE THIS WERE TRUE
There are only a few constants and trading these markets would not fall under this at the present. It seems logical to look at the things we know have some relevance and historically effect the market. the basis levels, the global numbers , the global price differentials. At present we have large soy stocks and friendly feed grain stocks. At …
AG TIME RISK IN RHETORIC
The China US conversations and the tariff suspension sent the market soaring. There are some real concerns here in my way of thinking. Not in the market place, but in the rhetoric written about the market. We have a huge carry both domestic and globally. To read the articles hitting the market you would think we had a tight global …
AG TIME MACRO CHANGES TO CONSIDER
There are two major changes(macro) to be considered that will potentially have a lasting impact on the commodity markets. The first is that the US is making great strides in a economic way. This is true both domestically and globally. This at the expense of emerging markets. This trend will continue for some time in my opinion. The current President …
AG TIME MORE TO COME
The soy was modestly lower in beans and meal. The oilshare gained. I am lacking much insight today. The soy is at a key level and if beans break through 950-940 is in the cards. I am not a bull , no secrets here. I believe the market is way over supplied and the funds with their buying ability have …
AG TIME OBJECTS IN MOTION
The soy complex witnessed liquidation. More than this though, the markets are looking at the fundamentals. The Chinese purchases, the currency differences, etc, etc, and saying this price may be way too high. The market I want to watch now is meal. Short term sells are here. The question now with this crush pace? How does meal do. I believe …
AG TIME – BIG CHANGES COMING ?
Let’s start with the outside markets. The Dollar specifically. The dollar is exhibiting strength. This strength should continue. This has a profound effect on the ag sector. Especially beans at present. It is no secret I am bearish the soy. The markets are oversupplied. And this will continue. It is my belief the meal too is overvalued and the market …
AG TIME – WISHING ON A STAR
The beans reached the $10.00 level and are bouncing because, because, oh yes, yes, the Chinese are speaking with the US! The break this past few weeks has less to do with the news and more to do with the reality of the market. The government has demand overstated. The bean sales are some 200 million less. Not because of …
AG TIME CONTRARIAN PAYED TODAY
The beans and meal were under pressure today. It is my contention that the USDA report was off in many key areas. Detailed in yesterdays writing. The old crop bean supply. HUGE, both domestic and globally. the new crop in my opinion is understated. This could be a significant amount. The Chinese economy is slowing a bit. The Hog sector …