The beans and meal are under serious pressure. This creates structural damage to both charts. The pendulum is swinging in my opinion. The Chinese are selling beans from there reserves. The Brazilian has supplied almost all recent beans. The estimates for next years SA crops are on the rise due to the extreme currency differences between the US. It is my belief these could be long term changes,I have been speaking of this for some time now. More beans equals more meal. At present there are still a healthy supply of oil available in the world. Palm oin continues to decline despite the global demand for oil. The heavy crush rate is weighing. It is my thought that if meal has turned the margins will contine to decline ultimately forcing a slowdown in the crush. This is a medium to long term thought dont get lost in that. Now $10.00 should become resistance,we will see. Interesting the beans have not lost that much relative to corn. Of note, now the meal spreads are at a carry. All grains will move out near full carry as there is plenty of everything. The weather has been good. Beans are made in July/Aug. Rallies going forward present hedging opportunities in my opinion.
The Corn eased a bit. The market may attempt to hold in here. The acreage will be key as to whether the corn has a small amount of room for error or not. With ratings high the market feels comfortable. A hot and dry forecast will get corn moving higher again. It is important to remember the global numbers are friendly and will offer little room for any problems then the US becomes important,at least for this crop season. It is my contention corn could have one more run that takes it to new highs. This will present a hedging opportunity if realized.
Thank You for all the kind responses. The markets are volatile and difficult. I attempt to focus on the macro. To discuss a quantified longer term strategy 800 993 5449 jwalsh@walshtrading.com
” INTO EACH LIFE SOME RAIN MUST FALL ” HENRY WADSWORTH LONGFELLOW american poet
BE WELL