There are two major changes(macro) to be considered that will potentially have a lasting impact on the commodity markets. The first is that the US is making great strides in a economic way. This is true both domestically and globally. This at the expense of emerging markets. This trend will continue for some time in my opinion. The current President …
AG TIME MORE TO COME
The soy was modestly lower in beans and meal. The oilshare gained. I am lacking much insight today. The soy is at a key level and if beans break through 950-940 is in the cards. I am not a bull , no secrets here. I believe the market is way over supplied and the funds with their buying ability have …
AG TIME OBJECTS IN MOTION
The soy complex witnessed liquidation. More than this though, the markets are looking at the fundamentals. The Chinese purchases, the currency differences, etc, etc, and saying this price may be way too high. The market I want to watch now is meal. Short term sells are here. The question now with this crush pace? How does meal do. I believe …
AG TIME – BIG CHANGES COMING ?
Let’s start with the outside markets. The Dollar specifically. The dollar is exhibiting strength. This strength should continue. This has a profound effect on the ag sector. Especially beans at present. It is no secret I am bearish the soy. The markets are oversupplied. And this will continue. It is my belief the meal too is overvalued and the market …
AG TIME – WISHING ON A STAR
The beans reached the $10.00 level and are bouncing because, because, oh yes, yes, the Chinese are speaking with the US! The break this past few weeks has less to do with the news and more to do with the reality of the market. The government has demand overstated. The bean sales are some 200 million less. Not because of …
AG TIME CONTRARIAN PAYED TODAY
The beans and meal were under pressure today. It is my contention that the USDA report was off in many key areas. Detailed in yesterdays writing. The old crop bean supply. HUGE, both domestic and globally. the new crop in my opinion is understated. This could be a significant amount. The Chinese economy is slowing a bit. The Hog sector …
AG TIME – IT MAY PAY TO BE CONTRARIAN
The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
AG TIME CORN IN LEADERSHIP ROLE
The markets will await tomorrows usda report. In my humble opinion this report will be significant to the macro outlook of the marketplace. The soybeans remained under pressure today while oilshare gained back a bit. Tomorrow should confirm the ample supply of both old crop and new crop bean supplies. the market will start to focus on a couple things …
AG TIME – JUST MARKING TIME
The funds were buyers today on “turn around Tuesday.” The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday’s trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday May 7th, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract continued its consolidation between the April 30th high (107.825) and the May 1st low (103.825). The Monday trade took place with a high of 106.275 and the low at 104.85. It settled near the low at 105.175. The high was just above the key level at106.025 and the …