The beans traded both sides. Tomorrow is the USDA report. All the ex bulls now think the market can’t rebound due to the lack of dialogue with China. Perhaps they are correct. The market has broken a lot. I have expected that. I believe it may be the wrong time of year to press the short side. Don’t misunderstand – …
AG TIME
A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME acreage next big thing
The next major consideration will be acreage which is released friday. I dont have alot of new insights today. The market has experienced a significant break. Now, the market needs to digest this before the acreage report. It is also a time of year where the weather will become important if only for a psychological reason. We are due a …
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The market revived the downtrend with more talk of tariffs. This is going to be realized within the next two weeks as the deadline is july 6th. It is my personal belief that China will take steps to give Trump something he will accept. I dont believe that China can afford a trade war. There is to much risk for …
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The soy rebounded sharply today. This was due given the recent break. the market will have concerns over the trade wars going forward. There still is a underlying theme that there is a friendly market out there. My report yesterday suggested to take defense up with profits on net short positions. It is possible to rally into the USDA report …
AG TIME time to be nimble
The soy continues to break, the beans and meal both. This is significant. I have been bearish,not due to the rhetoric and trade spat. But, because the numbers from a historic perspective warrant lower prices. I do believe history is the great equalizer. All things happen again. Having said all that I believe it is time to be cautious. Everything …
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Two sided trade today. there are alot of considerations here. The market has broken alot over concerns on the tariffs. This is a significant scenario and will have implications. The largest concern I have looking forward is the production growth. We are growing global carry overs in spite of record demand. Looking at this years crop. I feel we will …
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The beans have broken sharply. The talk is that the tariff threats are the reason. It is my contention that the bean and soy complex in general is bearish. It would appear today that we have marked a low. This may be temporary in nature. The US will impose the crippling tariffs on July 6th. It is my belief that …
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The beans have flat lined a bit here to digest the relationship between the US and China. It is my opinion that the Chinese will give further and a long term deal will be reached. however, to what end. the rhetoric continues to look for every reason except for the obvious for the break. The world is awash in oilseeds. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …