Category Archive

The markets show modest gains today based on some sales to unknown and China. It is my belief that the markets are over supplied and therefore overpriced. Given the time of year the harvest should start to roll. The overall weather pattern remains in tact for a reasonable unincombered harvest window. The yield reports are variable depending on the source. …

The beans traded both sides of unchanged. the story of the day was oil share bouncing back. This remains a theme I am watching closely. The domestic market has been mixed with a review of yields thus far. However the harvest pressure should still start to show up now given the pace harvest will start to roll. The market after harvest …

The soy complex closed moderately lower after trading six higher on the day. The reality in my opinion is that there is a very large supply of beans in the world, However, market participants really want to believe in a bull market. The yields domestically are fine. Not as good as last year but fine. The southern hemisphere has a large old …

The USDA report was important in my opinion. These numbers were well above the average guess domestically and were on the high side of the global stocks as well. this is significant for various reasons. partly because the USDA continues to estimate a larger global trade. In essence we are growing carryovers to global highs with exceptional demand. If demand …

The soycomplex today was mostly quiet. There are many currents running here. The central belt remains a bit dry. The Delta is potentially going to be struck with the hurricane effects. This story however may be in the final stages. The reality of the market is that the conditions have held up just fine. It is my contention that the …

The Soy complex started the shortened week on a higher note. This strength was led by the meal market today as oilshare gave back approx. 1%. The market advanced today on ideas of dryness to end the growing season. Also, potential rain may hit the delta right before harvest due to the hurricane making landfall this Wednesday. This rally may …

The dollar today continues its path lower. This should be watched. The dollar weakness can have impact on the grain trade and we are a bit off the highs and a bit weaker than I thought possible. The soy complex for me is a bit difficult in here. I remain macro bearish based on the long term fundamentals . The …

A fairly quiet day as the markets await the weekend to see weather next week. Also, the pro farmer tour will end with a idea for field related yields. The general thought related to the soy is that pod counts are down from a year ago. How that relates to a final yield remains to be seen. It must be …

The oilshare made nice gains today. There is talk that Argentinian bio is going to be slapped with dumping. This could ad significant demand to soyoil. Also, this would add more meal to the supply side at a time when the world already has a more than ample supply of meal. The bean market is still dependant on the weather for …

The soybeans and meal finished moderately lower today. The oil share gained. The USDA crop condition report showed a 1 % up tick in the good to excellent category today at 60%. Given the recent rains a further increase in conditions is possible to finish out the growing season as we exit august. There is still growing to be done …