Ag Commentary

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The dollar today continues its path lower. This should be watched. The dollar weakness can have impact on the grain trade and we are a bit off the highs and a bit weaker than I thought possible. The soy complex for me is a bit difficult in here. I remain macro bearish based on the long term fundamentals . The domestic carry has grown significantly. And of more importance the global carryover is approaching 100 mln mt. This really is a huge number. For some reason the market finds it more interesting to focus on the micro day to day aspect of the market. The predictors want to call for early frost. Just as they wanted to call for drought which didn’t happen either. Perhaps a frost will rear its head, and this would be significant. The difficulty here is we move and then retrace a large part of the macro making it very difficult to build positions and trading momentum.  The beans in my opinion still have downside. Perhaps we are early. The meal is ultimately the weak link of the complex. The bean oil based on oil share can still have a reasonable move, especially on a relative basis. Things are hard to pin down this year. Always quantify your risk. Feel free to contact via email or phone to speak regarding observations


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