Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

A fairly quiet day as the markets await the weekend to see weather next week. Also, the pro farmer tour will end with a idea for field related yields. The general thought related to the soy is that pod counts are down from a year ago. How that relates to a final yield remains to be seen. It must be noted that the usda is still approx. 3 bushel per acre less than a year ago. So some of the reduction may very well be tied in. There is no doubt that weather overall has improved for beans in the past two weeks. The next two weeks will be important to see if we can actually add some potential bushels. The oils hare has backed off its recent highs. This trade may still have legs. The dumping of biofuel by argentina if properly restricted could add 3-400 million lbs of domestic bean oil demand. This would be important and cause a drawdown in stocks. The market would rally and more importantly the oil share would have cause for gain. The market now will start to turn more attention to south America. the production potential remains large with brazil making gains and a bit of contraction in argentina. It is important to note that the global stocks will approach 100 million lbs. rallies still look like opportunities

 

be well