The talk in the trade is that we might see the USDA increase its corn and bean stocks-in-all-positions a little bit from the last 2017/2018 ending stocks figures………………………………………….In the past the September stocks report has allowed for the USDA to “reassess, redefine, make up for and readjust” mistakes/miscalculations from previous reports……………………………………………….There can always be a surprise and the impact of …
AG TIME – The Ups and Downs
The beans and meal were up sharply early. The why, in my opinion, the Argentinian country is essentially on strike. Transport in the mix. This is not unusual and typically lasts for a relatively short period. Getting back to the reality of the market. The Argentinian is buying US beans at will. They will either mark them up and sell …
More Harvest Pressure Ahead
The crops are still there! A little rain delay and the lack of hedge pressure may have been one of the reasons for today’s bounce in corn and beans and weakness in wheat as Mother Nature is delaying and providing with the moisture in the Midwest and Plains………………………………………………..We have experienced a nice recovery in grain and bean prices the past …
Olive Line Signals
ARP Learn to disregard news stories that can’t assist your trading. This morning it was reported by Bloomberg news that China is taking out ads in the Des Moines register to influence the farm lobby in Iowa. In Rural America. This is getting crazy in my opinion. Last week Rick Santelli of CNBC spoke about the Central Bank telling parliament …
AG TIME – Looking for Some Changes
The soy mixed today. The oil remains strong, meal did struggle. There are some thoughts regarding this. The macro picture is cheap beans. The US being the cheapest. We are actually allowing everyone, most importantly, Argentina to buy all the US beans they want then crush them and sell the meal. This ultimately will create a bearish protein scenario, in …
Washington Drama and USDA Reports
It appears that the trade is waiting to see how corn and bean harvest proceeds and if there will be an increase of hedging pressure as momentum grows……………………………Field reports continue to show very good yields yet, there always is the exception! Friday’s Small Grains Summary and Stocks-in-all-Positions reports typically do not get the hype that Production reports receive yet, these …
AG TIME – ASF ITS EXPANDING
The markets were very interesting to me today. The question is – will there be follow through next week? Many thoughts here. First, there was a new case of African swine fever found in China. This was in a new province. The key aspect to me here is not the number of animals, but the fact it is spreading great …
Wheat/Washington/Weather
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices. It is a big day for wheat number crunchers next Friday, September 28 …
AG TIME – A Rally Opportunity
Apparently the funds are buying beans because they are cheap? Whatever that means. As I have said, a nice rally in beans should be welcomed. The beans at levels on the board if, and I say if, they were hedged months ago, equate to a tidy profit with the one time govt payment (1.65 reported). This rally in my opinion …
Harvest Momentum
Some forecasters are calling for a frost next weekend in the northern Midwest which, if occurs, is a few days ahead of normal……………………………………Some farmers might welcome the frost as weeds will become less of a nuisance with harvest…………………………………………………..The National Weather Service is also calling for wetter than normal conditions to prevail which might impede harvest activity yet, lessen the probability …