While US corn and wheat are relatively cheap in the world market versus other major producers, the lack of news amid gov’t shutdowns and trade disputes has kept a lid on price. That was until today as nearby shorts across the grain complex covered positions. Despite earlier news that Russia will not place quotas on grain exports, internal wheat and …
Livestock report
February Live Cattle continued its advance on Wednesday, January 16, 2019. Another new high for the up move was established with futures reaching 127.80. This is just below resistance at 128.10 and forming a hanging man candlestick in the process. This is a potentially bearish candlestick formation. With futures unable to trade above resistance on Wednesday and the bearish candlestick, …
Interesting Times
Some may be looking at the low temperatures forecast in the Central US this weekend as a concern for wheat yet we need to stay frigid for an extended time with the lack of snow cover/moisture to cause any winter kill…………………..Historically, we need to go into dormancy very dry and then get very cold in order to do any …
Living Without a USDA Report
Traders are still focusing on basis levels, weather, receipts and shipments and government shortfalls and happenings…………..There is a growing belief that the partial government shakedown/shutdown may be reaching a conclusion and this might equate to the long awaited crop reports being released…………………..Traders still sense that grain stocks, carryover projections and winter wheat seeding will be a little lower than …
Grain Spreads: A few thoughts of Support at Support
Support levels in Corn, KC wheat, and Soy meal were hit today. Will they hold? Corn and wheat have long term bull stories but outside influences like Secretary Lighthizer’s comments on trade with China bemoaning anything meaningful regarding a deal in meetings last week were a reason to sell today. Notice that the stock market and energies ignored that data, …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle broke out above resistance at 125.80 trading up to a new high for the up move at 127.10 on Tuesday, January 15, 2019. Winter weather worries as the cold snowy conditions lead to worsening feedlot conditions and lighter cattle send futures higher. Wintry storm systems have been hitting the cattle regions and more are coming. The weather …
March RBOB Option and Future Strategy
Buy RBOB using the March futures contract in my opinion, last as of this writing 1.4136, the stop level is 1.3950 with targets of 1.4645 and 1.4975. I am looking at potential continued strength from the 1.2424 low on 12/26/18 and the 1.3760 low on 1/9/19. The RBOB Futures Contract has held support and data indicates solid Global demand to …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle made a new high on Friday, trading up to 125.65 in a slow, quiet trading session. It couldn’t get past resistance at 125.80 and pulled back to settle at 124.975. It was another tiny trading range as bulls had a difficult time extending the rally. With cash quiet during the trading session, traders couldn’t get excited and …
Grain Spreads: Snap back Wheat/Corn
Thursday’s sell-off in the grain complex sure looked like a one day index fund roll as corn,wheat,beans, and meal sold off in unison shortly after the open. Beans have reasons to drift lower if you consider where domestic ending stocks sit in relation to domestic carry over stockpiles were the years prior. Corn and wheat have long term bull stories …
All is Well………..Stay Tuned
Is there a reason to start to panic over supply of beans? corn? or wheat? The answer to corn and beans could be no despite the recent episode of hot and dry weather and slipping yield potential in Brazil………………Wheat might be a little different as the US might be the cheapest and most reliable supplier of decent quality for …