Traders are still focusing on basis levels, weather, receipts and shipments and government shortfalls and happenings…………..There is a growing belief that the partial government shakedown/shutdown may be reaching a conclusion and this might equate to the long awaited crop reports being released…………………..Traders still sense that grain stocks, carryover projections and winter wheat seeding will be a little lower than the previous figures yet, we’re not running out of anything this crop year……………………………….
If the crop reports are not released the next event impacting the grain market is March deliveries and rollover……………Basis levels still suggest that corn and beans will be healthy while wheat might be lighter than expected……………Winter wheat will be breaking dormancy in the Southern Plains in a few weeks and weather will become a little more of a concern………….We have been blessed with enough moisture to get the plant off to a good start but we will always need to have great weather in April to allow for great yields………….Lower acreage may be offset by better yields but we need to live through the events…………………The trade is sensitive to tight world stocks and there are quality concerns as exhibited by the historically tight spreads but wheat traders are a little more crusty and skeptical than most and have seen wheat live up to its Lazarus status…………………..it’s all about timing and it appears that we’re just not ready to make a move, yet!
South American harvest pressure might start generating a little more pressure on nearby beans and corn………………Spreads might reflect the lack of passion in the cash market…………..
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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