We have had three instances in the last ten years where managed funds have been short seven grain contracts. Funds have consistently been short all three wheat classes plus corn and have been selling rallies in these contracts since December. The soy complex has seen them flip from short to long to short again recently as a severe weather premium …
Planting Progress
It is a holiday shortened week as we observe Good Friday on April 19. First notice day against the May futures is only 9 trading sessions away after today. Basis levels suggest that we might see healthy corn and bean deliveries while wheat may be light depending upon how the southern crop is coming along. Harvest pressure might put …
Waiting and Watching
One of these days the market may decide to move and the reason for the move might be because of some weather problem such as too much rain for plantings, too much rain for wheat harvest, too hot and dry for crop development. Or, the market just might continue to tread water as the macroeconomic influences such as a …
Livestock Report
The Wild boar…. I mean the June Lean Hogs gap opened lower and tested support at 93.50, making the low just above it at 93.525. It looked like a full blown sell off was imminent. Stopping on a dime, the market reversed course and raced higher. It kept going higher until it took out yesterday’s high at 97.10 making …
Livestock Report
June Lean Hogs gap opened lower then closed the gap and then plummeted to go down limit as the wild ride continues. Limit up – limit down – expanded limits have been the rule, rather than the exception in the Hog markets lately. You have to be quick on the trigger and disciplined in your trading approach with these gyrations …
What Happened With Iran??
The numbers are out of the way….carryover on corn at 2.035 billion bushels..wheat 1.087 and beans at 895………………They decreased bean carryover by 5 from February while increasing corn by 200 and wheat by32 million bushels……………like with all government figure adjustments to come next month. The USDA did announce that they will be issuing world numbers sans China in …
Livestock Report
June Lean Hogs consolidated on Monday after making a new high for the up move on Friday. It formed an inside candle and settled (98.15) slightly above resistance at 98.00. The new high is at 99.825 which is just below resistance at 100.075. A break out above the Monday high (98.925) could see resistance challenged. A break down below …
Grain Spreads: Calm Before the Storm?
It was a relatively quiet Monday as position squaring ahead of tomorrows WASDE 11am release prompted a choppy range bound session in the grains.The average trade estimate for the US 2018/19 corn stocks is 2,013 Mil Bu, soybeans 913 Mil Bu and wheat at 1,076 Mil Bu. The report is not expected to be bullish if we come in near …
Real Surprise!
The snow and cold temperatures passing through the Plains the next few days continues to be a headache for corn while wheat benefits from the moisture and it is unlikely that temperatures will dip deep enough for long enough to deal damage to the crop at this stage of development. Duh! Tomorrow’s supply/demand figures are expected to reveal an …
Weather Sensitive
It’s starting to get serious as per planting delays on corn. Given the abundant old crop stocks we’ve got the cushion to overcome a little less yield and fewer acres which might develop if we stay damp for another month. Things might get a lot more serious if it appears that corn might not get planted until late May. …