It’s starting to get serious as per planting delays on corn. Given the abundant old crop stocks we’ve got the cushion to overcome a little less yield and fewer acres which might develop if we stay damp for another month. Things might get a lot more serious if it appears that corn might not get planted until late May. We have to play it out!
The eastern soft red wheat crop is not looking that good because of overabundant moisture and a little winter kill while the hard red in the west is in very good shape. Given the lowest acreage in decades we might see the lowest soft red crop in over 30 years and soft white production is hampered with the moisture in Michigan and the dryness in the Pacific Northwest. The next few weeks is critical development time for winter wheat and the market may be a little jumpy with quality concerns. We are keeping a keen eye on Europe and the Black Sea as, simply put, they’ve become the Wheat Belt! Things look good right now. Yet, the US appears to be the world’s supply source for April/May/June and we’ll see what happens when new crop harvest begins in earnest in July in Europe/Black Sea.
Beans go in last and what wheat gets plowed up and corn acres lost to moisture/time might equate to more bean acres. Time will tell! As with corn there appears to be ample nearby stocks and spreads could remain soft.
USDA S&D and international production figures will be released on Tuesday at 11 Chicago time. Have a great weekend. We’ll be weather sensitive Sunday night.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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