It is a holiday shortened week as we observe Good Friday on April 19. First notice day against the May futures is only 9 trading sessions away after today. Basis levels suggest that we might see healthy corn and bean deliveries while wheat may be light depending upon how the southern crop is coming along. Harvest pressure might put a little pressure on the Texas Gulf basis as well as in the southeastern United States.
It’s gut slot for corn plantings from April 20 to May 10 and the recent 6 to 10 day forecast of warmer and slightly drier conditions prevailing could strengthen the likelihood that we get the crop in on time. It’s a day by day thing. It’s always best to get the crop in a week or two before the traditional last frost date which vibrates around May 5 in Central Illinois and similar latitudes. The uncertainty may allow for a weather premium to stay in the December and forward while the March stocks report reminded us that the basis weakness in old crop might be warranted with lots of old crop around.
Politics and trade deals are tiring traders out with delays and extensions. It might be right to just sit back and assume that the world grain trade might just be efficient even with politicians and central banker road blocks and changes.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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