I purposely sat on my hands this week awaiting today’s crop report prior to commenting on market direction. It looks like it could remain that way a little longer. Today’s numbers from the USDA did little to change my purview for price. I’m bullish long term but the near term is suspect. The only bright spot for prices from a …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs reversed course from Tuesday’s strong trading session as reports the US-China Phase 1 trade deal could be delayed till December as the terms and venue remain uncertain. Hogs nearly went limit down after touching limit up on Tuesday. It traded down to a low at 64.45 and settled at 64.775. It is still stuck between …
soy thoughts
The USDA report friday should offer some clarification. The soy may not offer any great surprises however. If that be the case then a serious look at the long term should be undertaken. At present the demand scenario may well be overstated. This would have ramifications on the flat price. It is important to look at the Chinese demand. They …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs opened lower and made a new low at 63.375, recovered and rallied to the session high at 65.30. It pulled back to settle at 64.525. It is still stuck between resistance at 66.55 and support at 63.325. A break down below settlement could see price revisit the low and then the October 8 low at …
consider all sides.
The USDA will release the monthly report fri the 8th. Some questions may be answered . However I was thinking over the weekend about some macro scenarios. First the beans. I have been a bit neutral beans, friendly bean oil, and bearish meal. The three are just starting to come together with the oil share now at a respectable approx …
Grain spreads:Long Term Gameplan
For the last few months I have been advocating selling out of the money put spreads in both corn, wheat, and beans, essentially buying next year’s or next seasons crop. In my opinion, I believe this year’s corn crop has been overstated. From the onset, the Gov’t has been overstating planted and then harvested acres. Which in my view has …
AG THOUGHTS
This is a article written from the perspective of someone who is questioning certain aspects of the market. Not offered as fact, Rather pondering. The Soy complex is in a interesting global period. However, can someone explain how the meal remains historically high relative to oil when 1) there is a over supply of protein in the world 2) The …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs opened lower and tested yesterday’s 63.45 low, making the Wednesday low just above it at 63.50. Then in usual recent Hog fashion, it reversed course and raced higher, reversing yesterday’s reversal of Mondays rally. Huh??? Well, Hogs have been volatile; weighing massive US production vs the ASF in Europe and especially Asia (expect huge exports). …
Feeling Cautiously Bullish on 2020 Beans?
With a cautious but bullish sentiment for next year’s soybean crop, irrespective of fees, a “zero-cost,” hedging strategy is achievable which allows for 25 cents of upside profit potential from the current futures price , with protection on the downside just 15 cents lower. This strategy is possible due to the implied volatility skew to the upside common in grain …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs traded higher after holding support at 64.25 making the low just below it at 64.125. It traded to the high at 66.00, settling just below it at 65.65. It formed an inside candlestick, consolidating within Friday’s range. It stalled below resistance at 66.55 and the 50 DMA at 66.50. A rally above resistance could see …