soy thoughts

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The USDA report friday should offer some clarification. The soy may not offer any great surprises however. If that be the case then a serious look at the long term should be undertaken. At present the demand scenario may well be overstated. This would have ramifications on the flat price. It is important to look at the Chinese demand. They ,may not show a uptick in demand for some time. People can talk about rebuilding hog numbers. The reality however is that the ASF disease may still be spreading. In addition the overall economic situation there is not real solid yet. This while the ARG and Brazilian crops are on the rise. In addition the meal offers are approx $20 per ton cheaper out of SA. The one bright light may be the vegoil market due to the advances in bio demand. this is a solid aspect that could be present for some time. As I have mentioned it is my belief that oilshare could make a reasonable move to 35.7-35.9%. The jan oilshare is currently 34.6% . There may be more upside but the 35.7% is a number I have targeted for some time. It appears that the US/China phase one is being pushed to Dec based on logistical issues. This means little in reality but offers more question marks to the trade. As always these represent my thoughts. Always have a quantifiable approach.


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