John WalshGeneral Commentary

This is a article written from the perspective of someone who is questioning certain aspects of the market. Not offered as fact, Rather pondering. The Soy complex is in a interesting global period. However, can someone explain how the meal remains historically high relative to oil when 1) there is a over supply of protein in the world 2) The SA production will lead to a opportunity for Argentina to export meal in copious amounts. 3) The global demand for vegoil is on the rise while stocks are declining. The whole scenario is potentially dynamic. However, I dont know that we will see the dynamic play out. Watch the deferred meal and bean spreads as well as the oil spreads. It has been my limited experience that the spreads can lead us in the proper direction. If this thought plays out , perhaps the meal spreads move to 50-60% of full carry, while the oil spreads invert. These are thoughts. Quantify every trade as these thoughts may perhaps be incorrect.