The markets await the Thursday usda report.
The soy complex continues to make modest gains. Today the market is being led by meal as a uptick in Chinese demand has placed a bid under the market. e south American weather is causing a bit of early concern this also is lending to the early buying. The long term prospects for beans remain bearish in my opinion. It is early for south America. There remains plenty of time for the crops. This year domestically has taught us the genetics really are there to make a major difference like never before. In addition with a decent soy crop out of the southern hemisphere, the US exports may prove to be way over stated, by 75-100 million bushels. This would push the domestic carry above 500 million bu. While the global carry is 96-97 million tons ,at or near record. Quite a bit of beans. The oil share is on the retreat again today . The Malaysian palm oil stocks have grown to over 2 mmt. The largest in quit some time. The bean oil scenario has lost some of its luster, as the bio fuel mandates are not necessarily guaranteed regarding the anti dumping. Also the palm oil stocks have eased the tightness from a global perspective. As mentioned previously I remain bearish the market in a macro sense. However, the weather in south America will be watched closely. Any perception of long term problems can send prices higher. Exercise caution.
Corn The corn market has remained lackluster and weak overall. There are a few reasons for this. First, the domestic- The export report remains behind expectations. The yearly pace is slow. This is leading many to believe the final export numbers could be overstated by 200 million bushels. This is not great for a carry already above 2 billion bu. The global availability of corn is fine,and more than ample. This will continue to keep US exports behind expectations. This could be affected if the south American weather does not turn. Last, The feedgrain situation is more than ample, especially with The Russian crop above 85-86 mmt. All of this will continue to point to a difficult scenario for corn prices without a major global weather scenario.
Be Well