corn thoughts

John WalshGeneral Commentary

The corn has eased over the last week. There are various reasons for this including the fact the US has not been the cheapest global supplier. Being cheap does help in the export arena. For those interested in the fundamentals. Having said that, perhaps we are close to a bottom that could be driven by upcoming fundamentals. This may seem a bit predictive in nature so a quantified risk approach is always advised. It is still my belief that the USDA will need to assess production a bit lower than they have plugged in. Perhaps they were waiting for actual field numbers before being corrective in nature. It is also possible they wont change there numbers. There certainly are no guarantees with the government. In addition the election of a new regime in Argentina may well signal higher export taxes for corn. The rumor mill expects net reductions in corn planting with more acres now going to beans. This actually could be significant, yet remains to be seen. The last but not least remains China. Ill leave it at that. There are a couple ways to quantify corn here to discuss call.