John WalshGeneral Commentary

Im finding relativity in my literary titles. I guess a bit of humor related to the AG markets. There are two thoughts I have regarding feedgrains,but corn most particularly. The bearish side of corn in my opinion is well known. The US has had a ample amount of corn available. Although the basis has been strong counter seasonally. The global supply as well has been ample, allowing for weaker global offers. This has to a certain extent limited cash sales. The market is now shifting its focus to the S Hemispere plantings. Projections now will start to be watched. Lets shift focus a bit.

It is my thought that it is still probable that the USDA will need to reduce either acres and or yield a bit in the next report that is put out. If this transpires it could have a reasonable effect on the market. The carry would quickly move from ample to a bit friendly. ( not bullish,but friendly) . In addition, it is my thought that when the China/US trade deal (phase one) is agreed upon the Chinese will have either corn,or corn products on there hit list. This too will have a friendly effect if realized. There are some simple strategies to be long corn futures while buying short dated puts that could quantify risk while leaving the upside open. As I have suggested, I believe the corn market can reach the 412 level basis dec. As always these are offered as suggestions,Always have a quantifiable risk reward.