Grain spreads: Consolidation

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

A warmer dryer outlook in the next few weeks has given some reasons for profit taking in corn. Its also month and quarter end Friday ahead of a important crop report Friday at 11 am. Lots of moving parts here with First notice day for the July contract on Friday as well. Yield loss looks sizable for corn with some of the acres lost potentially priced in to the market. Whether its a hot and dry or cool and wet summer, it may not matter if millions of acres have gone by the way of prevent plant or corn for silage. Question is how much and where? We may not get a more accurate read until later this Summer with updated acreage numbers. The USDA has been adamant that the acreage count for this Fridays number has been surveyed deeper into June that previous years reports due to the weather. We will see, there could be some fireworks after Fridays report release. Remember the March quarterly report had the USDA finding an additional 300 million bushels of corn. Meaningful resistance is at 4.68 in Dec corn, a close over and we could see 4.91. Initial support at 4.51, a close under and 4.33 could be next.

For Beans getting the crop in the ground is still a problem, but with the planting window seemingly opening up in the Eastern Belt, planting should be complete in many lagging areas in by the end of next week. I have no idea on how the USDA will see Bean acres as many fields especially in the East and North have been way behind by the time of the survey. Subsequent reports on beans will carry more weight down the road. Nov beans have support at 913 and then 902. Under 902 and it could be 882. A close over 924, the 200 day moving average is needed to challenge 936, the 50 percent retracement of last years pre-tariff high to this years low. A close over 936 and its 971.

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