The USDA reports out at 11 Chicago time tomorrow are taking center stage yet, the trade is unsure about the accuracy of the figures as planting has been a moving target all month! Taking inventory with Stocks might be a little easier and the trade might take those figures as more believable. The average guesses for tomorrow’s reports are just under 87 million acres for corn acreage, 84.250 million acres of soybeans and all wheat just a little south of the March figure of 45.714 million acres.
It’s also first notice day and the talk during the trading session on Thursday is we could anticipate few, if any wheat deliveries, the same on corn while beans and oil might be respectable! It is also the end of the quarter tomorrow and traders typically sense that funds are more likely to even up and that might be a little bearish for corn and wheat as funds turned their positions around in late May and June. This might put a little pressure on spreads.
We should be focusing on weather on Sunday/Monday and the trade senses that we could use a little heat and a little drier pattern in the Heartland. The market will be sensitive to the heat wave in Europe and it means more to wheat but, world stocks are comfortable and the US might have a lot of wheat but poor quality while Europe has fewer bushels and better quality. The USDA will release winter wheat production estimates on July 11!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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