FEEDGRAINS

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

There are many concerns given the late plantings. The corn has dialed much of the weather issues in for the moment. There is still potentially more upside. However perhaps it is time to retrace and find support. Why? Assume 6-7 million acres lost. Assume a less than trend yield. This could give us a 1.1-1.3 billion bu carry. Now consider this. The US will import alot of corn this year. approx 150-200 million more than last year. The prospect for feeding wheat is great. 150 million more bu. The USDA has overstated exports given the SA crop size. Who knows say 300 million bu(conservative) Add this all up and now the carry is 1.7-1.9 bil bu. Even it it is 1.6-1.7,that is friendly but not wildly bullish given the global supply. A thought. Take a step back. If long and correct play some defense. Buy short dated puts,or sell calls. There is a long season to go. It will take a confirmation of the crop to push to 5.00 corn.

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