Bulls need some incentive for end users to panic and bears need some better weather to ease anxiety and it appears that we’re in limbo waiting for South American harvest and field preparation in the northern hemisphere……………………..less filling/tastes great! Seven weeks until we start getting serious about March future deliveries or the lack thereof and until the gut …
Grain Spreads: On the Defensive, New Crop Bean Hedges
Old crop/new crop soybean, soymeal, and corn spreads were weak all session today and despite the recent rally in outright beans and meal, the spreads have not been bid up. Whether today was merely turnaround Tuesday, or the start of some fund rebalancing, old crop/new crop spreads remain on the defensive. Recent weather events citing a stronger El-Nino pattern in …
Skinnier Uncle Sam
We’re another day closer to a new trade agreement with China yet, no one can say when the final provisions are worked out and the papers get signed………………..Optimists are hopeful that something may be reached before the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 22 to 25………………… Optimists are also hopeful that a border barrier resolution is reached …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle opened weak today piercing support at 121.90 and making the session low at 121.425. It recovered and rallied past the Friday high (123.30), making the high at 123.40 and settled at 123.20. It formed an outside day candle and a rally above 123.40 could see a retest of resistance at 124.30. A failure from the high could …
Bullish Oil Option Strategy
I see continued strength in Crude Oil after rallying from under 43.00 a barrel from over sold conditions (42.67 – 12/24/19). March crude futures settled near 48.90, up another 60 cents for today’s session. I think they can potentially rally to 55.00 a barrel as imports fell from 7.6 million to 7.3 million barrels per day last week. The charts …
Other Information Sources
We are surviving without the USDA!………….Other governments and private sector entities have been releasing their calculations and projections of supply/demand, production and acreage and there are those who believe that a compilation of their figures do just as well as that of the USDA……………………What the USDA has a monopoly on is grain stocks yet, we can ascertain whether we …
Mercurial Markets in Early 2019
MACRO BACKDROP: Welcome back and hope you all had a great New Year’s holiday. As we return from an exhausting period of merrymaking, that means getting back to business. As I alluded to in my previous article, the 2019 stock markets have appeared to make a run for it to the upside. Many factors could have caused this. Looking …
Watching Weather
Our first full trading week of 2019 appears to be starting without the benefit of USDA data and analysis……………Will we survive? The attitude among analysts is that corn and bean production could be a little lower from the figures released in November…………..Winter wheat seeding could be down from the 2018 figure by 2 to 5% and carryover projections and …
MARCH COTTON OPTIONS
In my opinion Cotton can potentially move lower toward 67.00 as bearish indicators persist. March Cotton last as of this writing is 71.48. China has not bought US Cotton since the tariffs have started and there are concerns that even with a solid yield in US crops, some areas Cotton quality isn’t as good pushing any other potential buyers away …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle continued its downward trek today piercing support at 122.825 and making the session low at 122.35. It was able to bounce from here and settled at 123.225. A break down below the Thursday low could see price test support at 120.75. If settlement holds and the 123.875 high is taken out price could revisit the 124.95 high. …