Watching Weather

Steve BruceGeneral Commentary

                                Our first full trading week of 2019 appears to be starting  without the benefit of USDA data and analysis……………Will we survive? The attitude among analysts is that corn and bean production could be a little lower from the figures released in November…………..Winter wheat seeding could be down from the 2018 figure by 2 to 5% and carryover projections and stocks as of December 1 might be a little less given the lower production………………………Regardless, we’re not going to run out of corn and beans for a few months as spreads and basis levels still suggest abundant stocks in the interior which need to move out of temporary storage………………….Wheat is a different story as rumors continue to circulate of concern over Argentine quality which just continues to story of bad weather hurting the Black Sea crop as well as American winter wheat in 2018……….Even with lower acreage it would be nice to get a quality crop this Summer and topsoil and subsoil levels appear to allow us to have a great chance of achieving that goal…….

                                Weather is still a critical element to our markets and there is a concern over South American corn and bean production as conditions have become less perfect…………………Things are still good in the US as winter wheat growing areas are enjoying warmer and wetter than normal conditions.  Recently, there are some in Europe who are trying to relate lower wheat yields to alleged climate change as cultivars are weakening………………You can’t make this stuff up! Too much rain and/or too little rain at various stages of development has always mattered to wheat quantity and quality since day 1! Snow cover in the Black Sea growing areas is spotty and the crop is susceptible to damage…………..just like every winter….

                                Brexit and trade talks resume this week with China and we are hopeful that an agreement is reached soon on both issues……………     

 The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited

within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.     

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Steve Bruce

                                           
Walsh Trading
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