Traders are still focusing on basis levels, weather, receipts and shipments and government shortfalls and happenings…………..There is a growing belief that the partial government shakedown/shutdown may be reaching a conclusion and this might equate to the long awaited crop reports being released…………………..Traders still sense that grain stocks, carryover projections and winter wheat seeding will be a little lower than …
Grain Spreads: A few thoughts of Support at Support
Support levels in Corn, KC wheat, and Soy meal were hit today. Will they hold? Corn and wheat have long term bull stories but outside influences like Secretary Lighthizer’s comments on trade with China bemoaning anything meaningful regarding a deal in meetings last week were a reason to sell today. Notice that the stock market and energies ignored that data, …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle broke out above resistance at 125.80 trading up to a new high for the up move at 127.10 on Tuesday, January 15, 2019. Winter weather worries as the cold snowy conditions lead to worsening feedlot conditions and lighter cattle send futures higher. Wintry storm systems have been hitting the cattle regions and more are coming. The weather …
March RBOB Option and Future Strategy
Buy RBOB using the March futures contract in my opinion, last as of this writing 1.4136, the stop level is 1.3950 with targets of 1.4645 and 1.4975. I am looking at potential continued strength from the 1.2424 low on 12/26/18 and the 1.3760 low on 1/9/19. The RBOB Futures Contract has held support and data indicates solid Global demand to …
Livestock Report
February Live Cattle made a new high on Friday, trading up to 125.65 in a slow, quiet trading session. It couldn’t get past resistance at 125.80 and pulled back to settle at 124.975. It was another tiny trading range as bulls had a difficult time extending the rally. With cash quiet during the trading session, traders couldn’t get excited and …
Grain Spreads: Snap back Wheat/Corn
Thursday’s sell-off in the grain complex sure looked like a one day index fund roll as corn,wheat,beans, and meal sold off in unison shortly after the open. Beans have reasons to drift lower if you consider where domestic ending stocks sit in relation to domestic carry over stockpiles were the years prior. Corn and wheat have long term bull stories …
All is Well………..Stay Tuned
Is there a reason to start to panic over supply of beans? corn? or wheat? The answer to corn and beans could be no despite the recent episode of hot and dry weather and slipping yield potential in Brazil………………Wheat might be a little different as the US might be the cheapest and most reliable supplier of decent quality for …
Impending South American Bushels
You have to feed a bull every day and we just didn’t do it today! Despite the weather being “not perfect” in South America we’re still another day closer to a huge crop hitting the market…….On top of that we’ve a lot of beans and corn to move out of temporary storage in the next 6 to 8 weeks…………..Spreads …
Livestock Report
Cattle markets consolidated within their Tuesday trading ranges today as the markets digested the rally. February Live Cattle has resistance at 125.80 and then 126.625. An inability to rally could see consolidation continue in the February contract. A March Feeder Cattle rally past the Tuesday high could see strong resistance at 147.30, the previous high (147.575) and the 200 DMA …
AG TIME
The Soy has rallied sharply. I have been traveling and was not posting. The weather concerns in SA have been a support. This to me seems overplayed. The crop in Brazil is coming down. However, the carry globally remains a record. It will be difficult to harm that. Given the farm payment from the government the price is over $10 …