Survival Sans USDA

Steve BruceGeneral Commentary

                                                It is first notice day on January beans and products on Monday and we do close early for New Years Eve and will be closed all day on Tuesday……..The new trading year begins on Wednesday and the new Congress convenes on Thursday………………..It’s amazing we survived without the non essential government employees………..some might like a continuation of that situation but, we might have to contend with a suspension of the January 11 final production report, winter wheat seeding estimates, grain stocks as of December 1, 2018 and supply/demand estimates…………………..That means the focus will be on South American weather and trade deals with China, Brexit and other World happenings……………………Old timers, like me, might focus a lot more on the fundamentals and the cash market with basis levels and private sector weekly reports on freight, receipts and shipments and, of course, the weather! We will survive!………………….It might even be the best thing that happens to us as it will get us out of our routine and reliance on the government…………….. large adjustments on government figures every week and month  could have made me skeptical of their commitment to accuracy and truth………..also, there have been times when I feel that we have been misled with the figures as census adjustments suggest that there may have  been times when white lies were used……….Regardless, respect must be given to the USDA and other government agencies and the best advice is to go into all major government reports as even and open minded as possible!

                                Argentina wraps up wheat harvest in January while Brazil and Argentina get going with beans in late February and March…………..The US hard red wheat areas have been blessed with moisture and non frigid temperatures which is great for the fewer than normal acres which were planted…………….Ukraine and the Black Sea region have experienced good weather and  the condition of the wheat crop is good…………..Happy New Year!          

 The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.     

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Steve Bruce

                                           
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