THURSDAY AM RADAR – FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Moderate rain over central and northeast MT, areas of moderate rain over central and ne ND… scattered showers over WCB, western PA, VA, western NC.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 14 SEPTEMBER
0.25-1.0″/ 6-25mm 50% coverage eastern MT / western ND … and over IND, OH, KY with similar rainfall amounts and coverage.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
60s over TN, KY, OH, IND … 70s over eastern MT, ND and over ILL, MS, LA, GA … 80s over LA, ARK, MO, IA, MN, eastern NEB, eastern KS, eastern OK, eastern SD … 90s over western NEB, western KS, western OK, all of TX, eastern COL /WY … 100 in southwest TX.
1-5 DAY = There is general model agreement of significant rain over the next five days across much of the upper Plains and the WCB, but there are some differences between the models. The operational GFS shows a widespread 0.5-2.0″/ 12-50mm rains covering 70% of eastern NEB …all of IA …all of MN and 50 to 60% of the Dakotas. There are lighter rain showers covering 50% of MO and ILL. The European model is much drier over IA, MO, ILL, NEB with only scattered light 0.25-1.0″/ 6-25mm and only 40% coverage but has 1-3″/25-75mm over western SD, all of ND, MN. Both models agree that most of the ECB and central & lower Plains as well as the Delta regions are dry over the next 5 days.
6-10 DAY = Both models agree that there is going to be a fairly strong cold front which will move through the Plains into the WCB in this period. The GFS has a band of heavy rain covering 80% of IA, eastern MN … all of WI into southeastern NEB and northeastern central KS. In this band of heavy rain the GFS shows 1-6″/ 25-150mm rains with the heaviest rains over central and southwest IA and the coverage is 70% or greater. This band of rain extends southwestward into western OK and TX panhandle. There are lighter rains over northern MO and northwest ILL up to 1.5″/ 38mm.
The European model is somewhat similar but the rainfall amounts are significantly different and more scattered. The European model shows two bands of rain ranging from 1-4″/ 25-100mm. The first band covers central and eastern Dakotas … central NEB … most of KS … southern OK … and the northern TX panhandle and covers 60 to 70%. The second band runs from northeastern KS into southeast NEB, southern IA and southeastern MN and the coverage here is 50 to 60%.
The 6-10 Day model ensemble – Because of the significant differences in how these models handle the rainfall in the 6-10 day … the best thing to do is look at the GFS, Canadian and European ensembles.
When we do that we see significant model agreement. Both models show a large area of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains covering 75% of the entire WCB as well as the eastern Dakotas, eastern KS and the northern half of MO… 1- 2″/ 25-50mm rains show up on the ensembles over portions of OK and northwest ILL. The Canadian ensembles is in strong agreement.
11-15 DAY = The surprisingly wet pattern for late September continues in the 11 to 15 day as both models continue to show moderate rains over much of the Midwest and especially over the WCB.