THURSDAY AM RADAR — FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
During the overnight hours heavy storms and significant rain fell over much of western, central and northeastern Minnesota …northern Wisconsin …the upper peninsula Michigan. There is a second band of moderate rain storms over southwest Illinois …southeastern Missouri …northwest Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. During the morning hours this activity fell apart and right now we have only light scattered activity across portions of Michigan… Indiana… far southeastern Illinois… far southeastern Missouri… and central and southwestern Arkansas.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 17 AUGUST
Once again it looks like Iowa missed out on the really good rains in the last 24 hours. There was widespread significant rain over central and southern Missouri …the central and eastern portions of Oklahoma …the northwest half of Arkansas …and far northeast Texas. In this area rainfall amounts range from 0.5-2.0″/ 12-50mm with 60 to 70% coverage. Some of the rain reached into far southwest Illinois. The 2nd area of significant rain fell over far eastern portions of South Dakota …75% of Minnesota (except for the far northwest areas), 75% of Wisconsin and the western half of Michigan. Rainfall amounts range from 0.5-2.5″/ 12-60mm with local heavier amounts to 4″/ 100mm in small areas across central Minnesota.
As you can see in between these areas central and eastern Nebraska, Iowa and central Illinois did not see significant rain. These areas were not completely dry though the rainfall amounts are generally under 0.5″/12mm with coverage of about 40 to 50%.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
70s over ND, SD, NEB, eastern WY/ COL, MN, WI… 80s over OH, IND, ILL, IA, KY, MO, KS… 90s over most of TX, OK, LA, MS, AL, GA, TN.
MODELS RAINS SHIFT NORTH IN 1-5D … 6-10D VERY UNCERTAIN
1-5 D = in the general sense the rains are shifting northward and will favor generally the Great Lakes area as well as the northern portions of Indiana …Ohio …Illinois …the northern half of Iowa …Minnesota and Wisconsin. The morning GFS model shows an area of 1-4″/ 25-100mm rains over the northern third of Iowa and 1-2″/ 25-50mm rains over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The coverage of these areas appears to be fairly high — of 60 to 70%. Southern Iowa, all Missouri …most of Illinois … southern Indiana …Kentucky and Tennessee are dry on the morning GFS model. There are additional scattered showers and storms over the eastern portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma.
The European and Canadian models agree with this but they have the heaviest rains along the Minnesota/ Iowa border into central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The European model also has less significant rain with those scattered storms over eastern Nebraska …Kansas …and Oklahoma. Most other areas of the Midwest are generally dry over the next five days although the European model also has some areas of light to moderate rain over 50% of Indiana and Ohio. These rains are generally in the 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm range.
6-10 DAY = The early morning operational / regular GFS model went absolutely nuts and is showing extreme rains over the eastern third of Kansas …all of Missouri …all of Arkansas with rainfall amounts between 2-10″/50-250mm with 75% coverage. Additional moderate rains reach into portions of southeastern Iowa …far southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky and Tennessee. The European model is significantly different and seems to be a lot more rational. It has several areas of 1-2.5″/ 25-60mm rains over 60 to 70% of South Dakota …Nebraska …eastern Colorado …with a 2nd area with similar rainfall amounts over southwestern Iowa, much of western and central Missouri …southeastern Kansas …and a third area across central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma …Arkansas …Tennessee …and Kentucky.
It should be noted that the 6z GFS model turned significantly drier and much more like the European model.
However the GFS and European ensembles are in significant disagreement. The European has a large area of 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm rains over 80% of Oklahoma …the Texas Panhandle …central and eastern Kansas …Missouri …southeastern Nebraska …most of Iowa with lighter rains into the ECB into Tennessee and Kentucky.
The GFS ensemble has widespread rain over the WCB with amounts between 1.0-2.5″/25-60mm with coverage over 75% centered over Iowa but also covering much of the Dakotas …eastern Nebraska …Missouri …and western Illinois.
In other words, we have no model agreement at all with what is going to happen in the 6-10 DAY forecast in late August. There is simply just too much disparity in the models to know which solution at this time is correct. Certainly the pattern does not look dry but trying to figure out which areas are going to see the significant rain and which areas are not … is a virtual crapshoot at this point.
11-15 DAY = The European model is fairly dry in the 11 to 15 day while the GFS extended in ensembles shows generally moderate rain over a good portion of the Plains and Midwest.