The USDA never ceases to amaze. The soy was a bit of a surprise and allows for a friendly move to sell levels. The carry lowered to 460 puts the domestic market back to a more realistic historical norm. Thoughts. Look for nove as a opportunity to make last old crop sales between 930-950. In addition make some sales new crop nov 960- 980. The bulls have the ball. However, the ASF is expanding. This is not a overnight fix. China will not expand demand. In addition the weather in SA is improving and offering incentive to beans. The lower end of the range has theoretically moved up.
The Corn was lower with the USDA actually raising yield 2/10ths. Certainly a different year. That was the early bearish side. the friendly side is the fact that there are only approx 40 days usage in the world without China stocks. In addition the weather this weekend could in real time cost 200-300 million bu ,not to mention delays. This could put carry 1.6-1.7. This could suggest a price $4.00 ish. Look for a 400-412 board old crop to make sales. Then 420-425 new crop to start sales. Prudence is a virtue. As always quantify your risk on all hedges and trades.