Tag Archive

GENERAL EQUITY – The stock indices are rallying today. In my opinion as I’ve said the markets can bounce and are due a correction. It is my contention that the stock market has entered a bear market and the fundamentals won’t turn for some time. It is my thought people want to underestimate the slow down we are seeing. In …

GENERAL The CPI was out. The 9.1 number is higher than anticipated. The ramifications of this reading are just starting to be felt. This number in my opinion does a couple things. First it reinforces the fact that the interest rates will need to continue to climb. This can be quick or over a protracted period. It’s like medicine to …

GENERAL – The stock market is moderating as inflation starts to move more sideways. Please remember sideways at record highs over the last decades. It is my belief the cost of capital will continue to increase. Therefore the stock market rallies represent a sale. It is just where. Quantify the risk.  ENERGY – The crude bounces again today. Please think …

SOY The bean market saw a two sided trade today. The market was able to close a bit higher. This recent fall may be enough for a minute. The crop condition ratings fell 2% week to week. They remain above the ratings last year. The trade however may wait to see how much recent rain, and the forecast will help …

SOY The beans are supported today. The old crop tightness has been supportive of late this week. The market in my opinion may have dialed the old crop stocks in to the price. The market at some point will begin to focus on the more than ample supply shaping up for the new crop. The weather of course will play …

SOY The beans liquidated yet again today. The reasons remain the same. The weather prospects are mostly positive. The bean crop has a long way to go till it needs to be overly worried regarding weather concerns. In addition demand concerns given the overall economic outlook are threatening. This is a real issue in my opinion and something I have …

SOY The beans again came under heavy pressure closing down over 30 cents across the board. The main reason(s) perhaps are the weather has moderated. In addition, the export sales are slowing. This is significant as the USDA estimates are above most private analysts for Chinese imports. I mentioned yesterday the new crop. However, old crop estimates are still 1 to 2 …

SOY The Bean market rebounded today. The advance was led by meal. The meal market is finding interest for a couple reasons. The cost relative to corn got cheap. In addition the oil share is correcting and the meal is becoming a bit more of the leader. The beans are getting a bid also due to weather concerns. This is …

GENERAL – The Crude is down as we speak 3.00 per barrel. I have no Idea if the market is going to $140 as many of the large banks have suggested. My question regarding that is at what price do you shut consumption down. There are only so many dollars the consumer will spend. Then it is cut back. We, …

GENERAL – The CRUDE is forging highs today. The fundamentals remain very supportive. The US is not going to change policy. In addition, the UAE indicated that the ability to raise supply relative to the demand is limited. The markets will be supported on the fundamentals and the technical outlook. The big banks, led by Goldman are predicting 140 dollar …