Please join me every Thursday at 3pm for a free grain webinar. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now Here are some trade ideas to consider that are longer term in nature. I am advising a course of actions that are currently counter to where managed money or the overall trend is at currently. Whether they …
Corn Crop Ratings Crash to a 6-Year Low
SOYBEANS – Soybean planting is at 76% as of 5/25, up 10% over last week. Planting is well ahead of schedule with the 10-year average for this time of year being 63%. Of the 18 major states, just KY (-5%), MS (-7%), and OH (-10%) were all lagging their respective 5-year averages. The national crop was 50% emerged, ahead of …
5 Minutes on the Markets – 05/28/25
I post these videos every trading day, shortly after 8 AM CT. Check back here tomorrow for another update! Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle had a fairly muted response. They were sharply lower, at one point, yesterday due to unconfirmed rumors, but closed well off their lows. Lean hogs appear to have set a “tweezer” low, which may have set …
Soybean Oil Leading the Grains YTD, as June Approaches
SOYBEANS – The weather forecast for the upcoming week shows rains for the South, with the Plains and Midwest drier along with cooler temperatures. Soybean oil has been the highest performing commodity in the grains and the second-highest performing commodity overall year-to-date behind gold. Soybean oil is up +22% year-to-date, gold at 27%. Managed money reduced their position on the …
5 Minutes on the Markets – 5/27/25
I post these videos every trading day, shortly after 8 AM CT. Check back here tomorrow for another update! Cattle on Feed data from Friday was mostly neutral, as the herd continues to contract and get smaller. That should allow Feeder and Live Cattle to continue the uptrend in prices. Demand should remain strong, as “grilling season” has begun. Wheat …
Can July Corn Break 467 and Continue Higher?
SOYBEANS – Soybeans closed lower ahead of the holiday weekend. Open interest was up yesterday along with the higher close showing that more new positions were opened which is bullish. Bean meal closed higher yesterday with open interest falling indicating short covering. Yesterday’s close was a monthly high. Meal exports made a 15-week high on yesterday’s report with funds short …
Profit-Taking in Chicago Wheat Ahead of the Long Weekend
SOYBEANS – Soybeans moved higher again today. Yesterday’s trading showed soybean open interest decline by nearly 5000 contracts, which signals short covering rather than new buying. Soybean CVOL, an implied volatility metric derived from option pricing, is right around last year’s weekly average. Last year soybean CVOL saw large increases in volatility heading into June. Soybean CVOL usually peaks during …
Chicago Wheat Closes Above the 50-day MA
SOYBEANS – Planting pace is at a rapid 66% compared to 48% a week ago and 50% a year ago. The average planting pace for this time of year is 53%. The states furthest behind in planting, the southeastern and eastern corn belts, are expected to see some rain. Rain is causing flooding in South America which large production losses …
Chicago Wheat Leading the Grains Higher
SOYBEANS – US and China trade negotiations are still ongoing. April arrivals of US soybeans into China are up 35% year-over-year. Brazil’s soybean exports into China are down 43% on the year. Last year the number of US shipments into China were unusually small, while Brazil exports into China were unusually large. Soybeans are estimated to be 66% planted compared …
5 Minutes on the Markets – 5/20/25
I post these videos every trading day, shortly after 8 AM CT. Check back here tomorrow for another update! Both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle have rolled over to the “sell side” on my charts. The uptrends are still intact, but short-term indicators are weakening. Seasonally, Cattle prices tend to rally this time of year so if the markets do …