Commentary: I’m seeing some bargain opportunities here within the grain sector despite all the negativity in the market. I think that there rea some realistic bets one can make here to establish some longer term bullish plays using some calendar spreads and inter-market ideas, that from a timing stand point are starting to make some sense to me. First Idea …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn has so much negative to deal with. One wonders when the fundamentals will be baked in the cake. The early trade Friday saw some buying on crude strength. The prevailing weak market took control. The Ethanol destruction is too much to overcome yet. The positive is that the Chinese purchased 570 t tn of corn. They have …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn traded both sides today. The early trade was fueled by rebounds in commodities. Talk of President Trump talking with Russia and Saudia Arabia regarding the Crude situation. The corn has broken a lot. The market continues to hold above the 332 basis March which may prove important. Looking forward there are many private analysts questioning the USDA acreage. …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn story is consistent. Overall weakness is due to plenty of supply. Increased by the failing ethanol process. This is a key fundamental and will take a bit to turn. The USDA planting intentions yesterday are overstated IMO. This is a long term market consideration. The near term will be plagued by the demand destruction. The positives are …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn market today was driven by the USDA release. The stocks were estimated at 7.953. This was approx 200 million bu less than estimates. This could indicate an overstatement of last years crop. Or perhaps a realization of corn left in the fields. Whatever the reason, it is material. The problem for corn at present is the acreage …
Soy Update
Commentary: The USDA released the stocks and acreage estimates today for March. The soy stocks came in at 2.253 billion. This was larger than anticipated. The acreage came in at 83.5 mil acres. This was smaller than anticipated by approx 1 million acres, but still up from 19 by 7.4 million acres. As mentioned over the last couple of days, …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The soy has been led higher by the old crop. Both beans and meal have been the leaders while the oil share has lost approx 6% in the past weeks. The catalyst for the strength has been concern over the recent weather in South America that has caused reductions in crop size. In addition, for meal, concerns due to …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn has dropped recently. There are real concerns over the shuttering of the Bio industry. This, if prolonged, will lead to an accumulation of corn stocks, potentially. The Covid shut down extension does not help this thought. The Chinese have been buyers of US corn, up to 1 mil tns. There is thought they may buy 1.5 mmt …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn market did a good job today closing higher. I say this because it looks as though the funds sold up to 2000 contracts on the day. The big talk today is that a large ethanol producer shuttered today for a bit. This is an ongoing trend and is of concern to the corn demand story. In addition, …
Soy Complex
Commentary: The soy was mostly mixed today. The fund estimates for the day, for those watching, were sold 1400 contract beans, bought 1000 meal sold 1000 bean oil. The meal was able to close higher despite the fact that Chinese meal was sharply lower last night. There are many unanswered questions that will have an impact going forward. Will the Chinese …