Commentary: The corn market today was driven by the USDA release. The stocks were estimated at 7.953. This was approx 200 million bu less than estimates. This could indicate an overstatement of last years crop. Or perhaps a realization of corn left in the fields. Whatever the reason, it is material. The problem for corn at present is the acreage …
Soy Update
Commentary: The USDA released the stocks and acreage estimates today for March. The soy stocks came in at 2.253 billion. This was larger than anticipated. The acreage came in at 83.5 mil acres. This was smaller than anticipated by approx 1 million acres, but still up from 19 by 7.4 million acres. As mentioned over the last couple of days, …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The soy has been led higher by the old crop. Both beans and meal have been the leaders while the oil share has lost approx 6% in the past weeks. The catalyst for the strength has been concern over the recent weather in South America that has caused reductions in crop size. In addition, for meal, concerns due to …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn has dropped recently. There are real concerns over the shuttering of the Bio industry. This, if prolonged, will lead to an accumulation of corn stocks, potentially. The Covid shut down extension does not help this thought. The Chinese have been buyers of US corn, up to 1 mil tns. There is thought they may buy 1.5 mmt …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn market did a good job today closing higher. I say this because it looks as though the funds sold up to 2000 contracts on the day. The big talk today is that a large ethanol producer shuttered today for a bit. This is an ongoing trend and is of concern to the corn demand story. In addition, …
Soy Complex
Commentary: The soy was mostly mixed today. The fund estimates for the day, for those watching, were sold 1400 contract beans, bought 1000 meal sold 1000 bean oil. The meal was able to close higher despite the fact that Chinese meal was sharply lower last night. There are many unanswered questions that will have an impact going forward. Will the Chinese …
Soy Complex Commentary
Commentary: The soy came under some pressure today. The pressure stems from a couple thoughts. The USDA will release acreage estimates soon. The thought process is the bean acres could increase by 9 million acres. In addition, this recent rally could add 1-2 million more acres at the expense of corn. This is an idea floating around. The question is, …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The Chinese have purchased approx 1 mmt of corn. There are thoughts that they could purchase another 1.5 mmt in the near term. This is a positive to be certain. It looks as though the near term low basis may of 332 could be the temporary low. There are a few near term supportive factors. However, it can’t be …
Ag Commentary
Commentary: Thoughts regarding the relationships in the AG sector. The Chinese have begun some purchases today. The exact quantities are not known at this time. However, the market fall put beans and corn in a relative position globally. This allowed the Chinese to buy at a par value. Looking out towards planting, it occurs to me that perhaps the acreage …
AG TIME
The soy quiet but lower. The tariffs are slated to hit more Chinese goods. The African swine fever continues to quietly spread. The market, I believe, will need to deal with the latter for some time. It is there to stay until eradicated. The setup in China makes the spread easy. I remain bearish soy. However, the market has fallen …