Commentary: The Nass report today opened the door for some reasonable expectations and adds a good feeling to the markets. First the soy complex witnessed reasonable fund buying through the day. The report today added approx half a million acres. The trade was looking for a larger gain. The bean rally could extend a bit further and then sales could …
Soy and Corn Market Commentary
Commentary: The soy was under pressure today . The weather remains very beneficial over all. The exports while up from recent history lack the fire power to get anyone excited. The Chinese spent a lot of their recent needs on Brazil. This puts Brazil in a sold out situation. It also makes one think last years crops were larger than reported. …
Market Commentary
Commentary: A few brief thoughts regarding the markets. There remains some unknowns certainly given the global climate. However, the Chinese are buying beans. Some of this is to restock, some is the push to expand hog production to fuel the crush. Regardless, the bean market has a couple near term pluses in addition to the purchases. The USDA 395 carry …
Food for Thought
Commentary: Looking at the current supply demand scenario and the USDA releasing numbers tomorrow. I have pondered what I am perceiving are some possibilities. First the soy exports may be a bit overstated. Second the acreage may well be understated by as much as 2 million acres. These are important numbers given the current global stocks. When I look at …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn was a bit of an inversion to beans today. The old crop stocks were 2098 bil bu. Smaller than anticipated. While the new crop was estimated at 3318 bil bu. The old crop offered support today with the market trading up 5 cents. The funds are (approx) short 200 t bu. This coupled with the fact the Chinese …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn could have a short term low in place. The Chinese are looking, strong sorghum sales are both helping. The worst case may be over for Ethanol. However, the rebound could be slow. The corn will also watch planting which is fine to date. It does seem probable that China will want to honor phase one commitments. The …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: It is my thought that corn is at a cross road. The fundamentals are bearish without a change. The Chinese are expected to buy to replenish stocks. This reality is needed sooner rather than later. The US planting is moving at a solid pace. This offers little support. The Ethanol industry is on the brink as well given the …
Grain Spreads
Commentary: The demand destruction across various sectors is unfortunately very real as the economy shuts down. Retail Sales which account for over 70 percent of GDP has been sidelined or idled except for some trips to the grocery store by consumers. The destruction in energy and those effects have spilled into most sectors, one commodity that we follow is corn, …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn rebounded nicely today. The corn has shown a strong correlation to the crude. There still remains some concerns given the ethanol slowdown. In addition the lack of use given the global shut down. However, if the crude shows some strength, then the corn may well have set a double bottom in. This could allow for a stabilization …
Soy & Corn Commentary
Commentary: Today was an historic day in some sense. The crude traded down to negative $40. Yes that is correct a negative. The situation dictating someone will get paid to essentially take the crude. This has ramifications on the global structure of many commodities. The long term scenario needs to be digested as rash decisions are not advised at present. …