Commentary: Looking at the current supply demand scenario and the USDA releasing numbers tomorrow. I have pondered what I am perceiving are some possibilities. First the soy exports may be a bit overstated. Second the acreage may well be understated by as much as 2 million acres. These are important numbers given the current global stocks. When I look at …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn was a bit of an inversion to beans today. The old crop stocks were 2098 bil bu. Smaller than anticipated. While the new crop was estimated at 3318 bil bu. The old crop offered support today with the market trading up 5 cents. The funds are (approx) short 200 t bu. This coupled with the fact the Chinese …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn could have a short term low in place. The Chinese are looking, strong sorghum sales are both helping. The worst case may be over for Ethanol. However, the rebound could be slow. The corn will also watch planting which is fine to date. It does seem probable that China will want to honor phase one commitments. The …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: It is my thought that corn is at a cross road. The fundamentals are bearish without a change. The Chinese are expected to buy to replenish stocks. This reality is needed sooner rather than later. The US planting is moving at a solid pace. This offers little support. The Ethanol industry is on the brink as well given the …
Grain Spreads
Commentary: The demand destruction across various sectors is unfortunately very real as the economy shuts down. Retail Sales which account for over 70 percent of GDP has been sidelined or idled except for some trips to the grocery store by consumers. The destruction in energy and those effects have spilled into most sectors, one commodity that we follow is corn, …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn rebounded nicely today. The corn has shown a strong correlation to the crude. There still remains some concerns given the ethanol slowdown. In addition the lack of use given the global shut down. However, if the crude shows some strength, then the corn may well have set a double bottom in. This could allow for a stabilization …
Soy & Corn Commentary
Commentary: Today was an historic day in some sense. The crude traded down to negative $40. Yes that is correct a negative. The situation dictating someone will get paid to essentially take the crude. This has ramifications on the global structure of many commodities. The long term scenario needs to be digested as rash decisions are not advised at present. …
Grain Spreads
Commentary: Chicago Wheat vs Corn has pushed out to well over $2.00 making a near term high of $2.30 just a few days ago. Today the July/Chicago wheat settled at 2.14 over July corn ZCN. Tight ending stocks for wheat amid a less than certain outcome for the winter wheat crop is a big reason in my view. Corn on …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn rebounded today. Will this end the long decline?The biggest question is the domestic loss of Ethanol demand. The question of the US opening back up is important. The export pace has been reasonable. The USDA will release supply and demand on Thursday. There are many who look for an increase in stocks. I present some food for thought …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn continues to erode. The overall fundamental picture remains heavy with concerns over the ethanol situation. The market has dialed in the ethanol staying closed for some time. If realized, it would reduce demand by a horrific amount. It is my thought that the market has dialed in a worse case scenario. This could be mitigated if things …