COMMENTARY: The soy was under heavy pressure across the board early on. The market slowly climbed off the lows through the session as the day progressed. The feature the last few days was the oil share and the slide we witnessed. Today could have marked a low for a minute. The weather has not changed in any material way. This looks consistent with all models. There exists an opportunity for further heat and dryness. Especially in the most stressed areas. The market will need to digest the weather which could clip yields here. And the longer term issues that the demand may be slowing. The US sales are starting to decline on a relative basis. The South American will offer more competition. The Chinese are not in need of the quantity of beans going forward. There is much to contemplate. I want to look at the old crop and the new crop in different lights. I want to look at the old and new spreads the same. The one wild card that could still be very explosive, is if the Parana river is shut down. The levels are very concerning. Let’s see what happens. I expect a bounce to end the week led by soy oil. As usual quantify the risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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