The government will release an update tomorrow. The expectations are for confirmation of declines to the balance sheet. It is my concern that the market has adjusted for any numbers we may see tomorrow. The beans in my opinion have dialed in a large production decline. Perhaps a tighter carry than we could see tomorrow. This could prove significant. The point I am attempting to make is that the price we see today might represent a very good opportunity to be hedged. The thought is to sell old crop and use the price in new crop to extend coverage. These are very generous prices in my opinion. The corn has had a significant move as well. The corn may be due a pull back as well. It is my belief however, that the corn could be a longer term opportunity. The global corn production, especially as it relates to China, could put the US corn crop in a much desired position. This is a theory at present. However, the Chinese could have some significant shifts, IF the right things occur.
Quantify the risk.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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