Commentary: The corn has dropped recently. There are real concerns over the shuttering of the Bio industry. This, if prolonged, will lead to an accumulation of corn stocks, potentially. The Covid shut down extension does not help this thought. The Chinese have been buyers of US corn, up to 1 mil tns. There is thought they may buy 1.5 mmt …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn market did a good job today closing higher. I say this because it looks as though the funds sold up to 2000 contracts on the day. The big talk today is that a large ethanol producer shuttered today for a bit. This is an ongoing trend and is of concern to the corn demand story. In addition, …
Soy Complex
Commentary: The soy was mostly mixed today. The fund estimates for the day, for those watching, were sold 1400 contract beans, bought 1000 meal sold 1000 bean oil. The meal was able to close higher despite the fact that Chinese meal was sharply lower last night. There are many unanswered questions that will have an impact going forward. Will the Chinese …
Soy Complex Commentary
Commentary: The soy came under some pressure today. The pressure stems from a couple thoughts. The USDA will release acreage estimates soon. The thought process is the bean acres could increase by 9 million acres. In addition, this recent rally could add 1-2 million more acres at the expense of corn. This is an idea floating around. The question is, …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The Chinese have purchased approx 1 mmt of corn. There are thoughts that they could purchase another 1.5 mmt in the near term. This is a positive to be certain. It looks as though the near term low basis may of 332 could be the temporary low. There are a few near term supportive factors. However, it can’t be …
Grain Spreads: Bargain Hunting
Commentary: I have been scanning the Board looking for value here amid the chaos and panic that has rattled markets and society the last few days. While it appears that this virus may stick around for longer than first anticipated, I suspect that prices will return to the mean across many sectors as industries eventually come back online and employees …
Ag Commentary
Commentary: Thoughts regarding the relationships in the AG sector. The Chinese have begun some purchases today. The exact quantities are not known at this time. However, the market fall put beans and corn in a relative position globally. This allowed the Chinese to buy at a par value. Looking out towards planting, it occurs to me that perhaps the acreage …
Livestock Report
Commentary: Livestock markets continued their plunge as coronavirus fears and panic continues to grow. With travel bans, multiple event cancellations, sports suspensions and workers being told to stay or work from home demand destruction expectations continue to rise. You also have production soaring with huge slaughter numbers and weights much higher than last year providing the setting for a so-called …
Grain Spreads: Mine the Gaps
Commentary: A week to remember for sure in commodities. Massive price swings in every sector, enhanced volatility, daily limits and circuit breakers hit and then hit again. The fear factor is weighing high on investor psychology as the exodus out of equities and the selling of commodities has ramped up given the alleged demand destruction in the near term. When …
Livestock Report
Commentary: April Live Cattle tried to hold Tuesday’s gains early in the trading session but the constant pressure in the outside markets and the constant negative commentary about the coronavirus and the resultant concerns about large gatherings were too much for cattle to handle. The quarantining of ships, certain towns and cancellations of large events continues to cause demand concerns …