Hogs Make New low

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary Leave a Comment

June Lean Hogs opened higher and rallied to the high of the day at 99.475. The rally took price above the rising 50-DMA now at 99.05but it couldn’t overtake the Friday high at 99.80 and price drifted. Mid-morning saw a strong cutout which pushed futures higher for a brief moment but the momentum didn’t last and it broke down the rest of the session to the low at 96.975.  It ticked higher at the end of the day to settle at 97.475. Cutouts are starting to move higher with a nice rally on Monday and a rebounding index. The cash index however, has risen nominally and is struggling. Futures are unable to stretch far from the index as are selling the rallies. The breakdown took price to a new low for the down move but the market is in consolidation mode at the lows in my opinion. The breakdown took price below support at 97.30 but settlement was above it. This gives bulls some hope in my opinion that futures can hold the line. What futures really need is to see the cash market jump higher and change sentiment. We are not seeing that occur so far, in my opinion. The index is off its recent lows but is close to the bottom. Cash needs to do more. If futures hold settlement, it could revisit resistance at 98.475. The rising 50-DMA is next and then the Friday high. A failure from 97.30 could see price test the Monday low and then move towards support at 95.30.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.82 as of 05/10/2024.

The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 91.32 as of 05/09/2024.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 461,000, which is below last week’s 481,000 and last year’s 463,769.

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 14, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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