For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, June 09, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
July Lean Hogs continued its chop slop with a bullish pen and a bearish close on Monday. It opened higher and surged to the high of the day at 101.10. This took price past the Friday high and things were looking good for the moment as the price action took futures above short-term moving average resistance. But, with cattle markets breaking down and a lower morning cutout, the psychology turned negative and futures broke down and made the low around noon at 97.15. It limped into the close to settle near the low at 97.35. The breakdown took price to a new low for the down move and past support at the rising 100-DMA now at 99.125 and key levels at 98.475 and 97.30 before settling just above the lower key level. The inability for the cash market to push higher has been a negative influence for the futures market and rallies have been sold. Today’s price action formed an outside down candlestick which likely could keep futures under pressure. Traders’ want to see a strengthening cash market, not one that pushes higher and then falls back into a range. That is what we are seeing, in my opinion even though the cutout has moved above its previous range of around 98.00 to 95.00. It is actually near its recent highs but continues to fail at the 100.00 level. Traders want to see it establish itself above 100.00 and move higher so the cash can move to higher levels. It failed to hold above 100.00 and traders punished the futures market in response. The way things are going we could continue to see breakdowns in the market until the cash market catches fire and the way the market is trading, it looks like the cash market won’t be able to break out of its doldrums. A very disappointing situation for sure if it continues. We’ll see!… A failure from settlement could see price test support at 95.30. Support then comes in at 93.50. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 100.075 and then the rising 100-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 101.975. The 8,13 and 21-DMAs are just above 100.075 resistance at 100.325, 100.55 and 100.425 respectively.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 99.69 as of 06/05/2026.
The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 92.60 as of 06/04/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 470,000, which is below last week’s 471,000 and last year’s 476,821.
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Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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