For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays. My next webinar will be Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 3:15 pm. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
The Cattle futures markets started the week on an ugly note, making new lows for the down move as news that the border will shortly open with Mexico pressured trader sentiment. The negative attitude didn’t last long as traders took price higher the rest of the week on short-covering as traders cleaned up positions as we neared month end. The border situation has traders and producers trying to figure if the re-opening will have any material effect on cattle supply. Talking to many different producers about the situation gave me many different opinions on the matter. From what I’ve read, the government seems to believe we will import 80,000 head a month from Mexico. Texans I have spoken with don’t share in that sentiment. With the Douglas, Arizona site the first to open for Mexican imports, the belief is there won’t be many cattle heading to Texas. Once the other ports start to open, we could see cattle coming in and going to Texas but, most don’t believe it will be in great numbers. With the feedlot and packing industry in Mexico developing and sending beef to the US, they don’t want to lose that ability since the closure has been a windfall for them. They will fight to keep the cattle there and it might enable the rancher in Mexico to get better prices but with the potential for the border to close on any northward screwworm encroachment, they will likely be wary of moving cattle to the designated areas. Plus, there are many areas that will be restricted from bringing cattle to the US and any failed attempt to keep those cattle away, could lead to violation of trust and lead to a shutdown. It will be time consuming to inspect and treat the animals, so that will slow cattle coming in to the US. Then you have producers who think decent amounts of cattle will come in to the US but not the amount the USDA has claimed will come in. Texans are eager for the border to re-open but are wary of negative possibilities. They hope the USDA ius correct in the cattle numbers but also don’t want to kill prices in the US. They have a lot invested at higher prices and now fear the re-opening could pressure prices. It seems to be already happening as feeder cattle and cash prices have deteriorated even before the announcement. Those that don’t import cattle from Mexico are leery about the opening. They don’t think it is good for them but also don’t believe we will see many cattle coming into the US this year as there are still many hurdles to overcome. But the die is cast and the border will re-open at the Douglas, Arizona port on August 24th. The border opening will have traders watching the event with great interest. The more cattle that come in could change the dynamic of the cattle market. The less cattle that come in could still have a negative effect as traders will likely expect more cattle to come at some point. It will likely be a no-win situation for cattle prices as we move forward. We’ll see!… September Feeder Cattle opened higher and traded to the session low at 342.10. This early breakdown tested Thursday’s high and settlement and contained the selling. Price took off and rallied to the high at 345.35. This was a test of resistance at 344.675 and price couldn’t maintain this level for long. Price worked lower and tested the low before working higher to settle at 343.775. Settlement was just above the declining 13-DMA now at 343.225. If settlement holds, it could revisit the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at the declining 21-DMA now at 348.625. A failure from settlement could see price revisit the Friday low. Support then comes in at 341.05. October Live Cattle opened lower and traded to the high at 228.50. The rally stalled at the 21-DMA now at 228.275. Price reversed and broke down the rest of the session to the low at 226.925. It settled near the low at 227.25. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at the 21-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 230.425. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 226.60. Support then comes in at 224.55.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 345.83 as of 07/30/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.88 to 361.38 and select surged 4.90 to 346.23. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 15.15 and the load count was 82.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 98,000, which is below last week’s 103,000 and above last year’s 92,895. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 7,000 which is below last week’s 14,000 and above last year’s 880. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 512,000, which is below last week’s 528,000 and last year’s 536,919.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on light demand in Kansas. Compared to last week, live purchases have been 2.00-3.00 higher at 233.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on light demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few dressed purchases from 365.00-368.00 in Nebraska and a few live purchases from 232.00-235.00 in the Western Cornbelt, but not enough for an adequate market test in either region. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases at 230.00, with a few up to 232.00, and dressed purchases at 365.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was live purchases at mostly 232.00-233.00 with a few up to 235.00 on Thursday and dressed purchases last week at 365.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 235.00 and from 360.00 – 370.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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