Commentary
Wheat futures were supported overnight by news Cargill will cease exporting Russian grain. Then a second announcement by World grain trading firm Viterra the world’s largest wheat exporter announced today they would also stop trading in Russia, just after Cargill backed out on Tuesday starting with the next marketing year on July 1. Corn and soybeans then followed to the upside. In my view it puts it puts more questions around Russia’s ability to export. Russian state exporters claim that they’ll be able to keep grain moving out at the same pace, but major speculative funds holding large short positions may lack confidence in that currently, supporting the recent price recovery as they exit short positions. That said, the overnight/early morning rally was faded, with Corn essentially unchanged on the session while Chicago wheat showed modest gains. All eyes in my view will be focused on Friday’s planting intentions report at 11am Central. For the USDA planted acreage report, traders see all wheat planted area at 48.9 million acres, 45.7- 50.0 range, as compared with 49.5 million acres from the USDA outlook forum. Spring wheat planted area is expected near 10.9 million acres, 9.8-12.0 range, as compared with 10.8 million acres last year. Winter wheat plantings are expected near 36.3 million acres from 33.3 million in 2022. On Monday, we will get the USDA’s first crop condition report the winter wheat crop post dormancy. I think the enormity of these releases by USDA held back any follow through rallies in the wheat sector today following the Russian export news.
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